Illinois, Chicago Officials Studying Other Pension Options After Court Ruling

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The Illinois Supreme Court in the last 18 months has struck down pension reform laws at the state and city level.

But Illinois and Chicago officials are likely to try again, and are still studying options for changing pension benefits and bringing costs down.

They are studying two options in particular. Crain’s Chicago explains:

One option involves offering workers something to give up part of their pension benefit, the so-called “consideration” model. Its major proponent is Senate President John Cullerton, who’s trying to line up the votes to pass it through his chamber later this spring.

Another plan would buy out pensions, offering workers a pile of money they would control and invest themselves in exchange for giving up their rights to a defined-benefit plan. The plan is particularly popular with Republicans and conservative groups.

But neither option would provide more than a fraction of the savings to taxpayers that earlier plans covering state workers and city laborers and white-collars employees would have. And the legal fraternity is divided over whether either will pass constitutional muster with the court, though the buyout option may have a fair shot.

[…]

Cullerton, however, points to a section in the most recent ruling—see paragraph 53—that says benefits could be reduced in exchange for another “additional benefit.”

Since nobody working for government ever is guaranteed a salary hike, the General Assembly can require workers to choose between having pay increases through the years included in their pension base or giving up the 3 percent compounded annual benefit hike that retirees now get each year to make up for inflation, he argues.

Bruce Rauner has all but endorsed Cullerton’s plan. But legal experts are split as to whether the plan would hold weight in the state Supreme Court.

Photo by Viewminder via Flickr CC License

2015 A “Strange” Year for Corporate Pensions As Funding Stays Put

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2015 was a roller-coaster year for pension plans, but the largest corporate pension plans ended up roughly in the same place as they started.

The funding status of the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans improved just 0.1% in 2015, according to a report from Milliman.

In a release, the study’s co-author remarked on the “strange” year:

“What a strange year for these 100 pension plans,” says Zorast Wadia, consulting actuary and co-author of the Pension Funding Study. “These pensions weathered volatile markets, unpredictable discount rate movements, adjusted mortality assumptions, pension risk transfers, and an industry-wide decline in cash contributions…and yet they still finished the year almost exactly where they began. Given all that transpired in 2015, plan sponsors may be relieved that plans did not experience funded status erosion like that of the prior year. But that doesn’t change the fact of a pension funded deficit in excess of $300 billion.”

Study highlights include:

Actual returns well below expectations. Actual plan returns were 0.9% for the year—just a fraction of the expected 7.2%.

Impact of updated mortality assumptions. Pension obligations at the end of 2015 were further reduced to reflect refinements in mortality assumptions. While we are unable to collect specific detail regarding the reduction in PBO, a 1% to 2% decrease has been anecdotally reported. Additional revisions to mortality assumptions may be published in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Cash contributions reduced by almost $9 billion. Approximately $40 billion was contributed in 2014, with that number falling to $31 billion in 2015. The likely cause of the decline: the continuation of interest rate stabilization (funding relief) courtesy of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015.

Read the full study here.

 

Photo by Sarath Kuchi via Flickr CC License

CPPIB Goes on a Massive Agri Hunt?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Jesse Riseborough and Javier Blas of Bloomberg News report, Glencore Plc sells $2.5 billion stake in agriculture business to CPPIB:

Canada’s largest pension fund agreed to pay US$2.5 billion for a minority stake in Glencore Plc’s agriculture unit as the commodity trader and miner works to reduce its debt burden.

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board will acquire a 40 per cent stake in the division which handles wheat, corn, barley, biofuels, cotton and sugar, according to a statement on Wednesday. The deal values the entire business at US$6.25 billion, below a US$10.5 billion valuation from Citigroup Inc. in September last year.

The price “was the low end of our valuation range, but it is not necessarily a disappointment,” said Ben Davis, an analyst at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London who advises holding the shares. “Cash through the door remains key for Glencore.”

The sale is part of a debt-cutting program Glencore Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg unveiled last year in a move to mitigate concern about the company’s capacity to pay down US$30 billion of debt as commodity prices tumbled. Canada Pension fended off other bidders that included Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and the state-owned Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co.

Stock Retreats

Glencore shares slipped 1.8 per cent to 139.30 pence by 11:08 a.m. in London. The company’s 588 million euros of notes maturing in April 2021 rose 1.8 cents on the euro to 93 cents, the highest since September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The price “is lower than market expectations based on discussions with investors,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Eugene King, who has a hold rating on the stock, wrote in a note to clients. The cash will help lower debt, but it will have minimal impact on the critical net debt to Ebitda ratio assessed by ratings agencies, he said.

Glencore has an option to sell as much as 20 per cent more in the business. Both Glencore and CPPIB can call for an initial public offering after eight years from the deal closing, expected to be in the second half of this year.

Food Trading

Glencore became a major agriculture player when it agreed to buy Canadian grain handler Viterra Inc. for $6.1 billion in 2012. With global network of more than 200 storage facilities and 23 ports, the company buys products from farmers, processors and other suppliers and sells to customers including local importers and government agencies.

The unit has gross assets of US$10.2 billion and generated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of US$734 million last year.

As the commodity collapse intensified in 2015, Glencore fought to reduce its debt burden, which totalled US$25.9 billion at the end of last year, by scrapping its dividend, closed mines and sold US$2.5 billion of new shares. Last month, the company pledged to cut net debt to as low as US$17 billion and raise as much as US$5 billion from selling assets.

“CPPIB have a proven track record in the sector and share our vision for the future growth of the business through value-creating organic and inorganic growth opportunities,” Glasenberg said in the statement.

Ag Deals

The transaction caps three years of intense deal making in the agriculture industry. Last year, Mitsubishi Corp. paid just over US$1 billion for a 20 per cent stake in food trader Olam International Ltd. Marubeni Corp., one of Japan’s top-five trading houses, bought U.S. grain merchant Gavilon Holdings LLC for US$2.7 billion plus debt in 2013.

Cofco Corp., China’s largest food company, spent more than US$4 billion over two years to build a global grain trader. It acquired the grains and oilseeds unit of Noble Group Ltd. and a majority stake in Dutch trader Nidera BV.

Glencore’s agriculture business “is now well-placed to take advantage of the significant opportunities that are expected to emerge across the sector in the coming years,” Mark Jenkins, senior managing director and global head of private investments at CPPIB, said in the statement. Agriculture is an “excellent fit” for a long term investor, he said.

Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG were joint financial advisers to Glencore. CPPIB was advised by Deutsche Bank AG.

Peter Grauer, chairman of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, is a senior independent non-executive director at Glencore.

Ian McGugen of the Globe and Mail also reports, CPPIB to acquire stake in Glencore agriculture unit in $2.5-billion deal:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is buying a 40-per-cent stake in the agricultural trading unit of Glencore PLC for what appears to be an attractive price.

The $2.5-billion (U.S.) price tag on the deal implies that the entire Glencore Agricultural Products business has an equity value of $6.25-billion, which is lower than many observers had expected. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, for instance, had estimated the unit’s enterprise value (including $600-million of debt) at $7.5-billion.

CPPIB is paying a price that is equivalent to 7.5 times the unit’s estimated earnings for the next year before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to the RBC analysts. That is in line with, or slightly lower, than the valuation on publicly listed agricultural traders such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. or Bunge Ltd., which are trading at enterprise values between 7 and 9 times EBITDA.

CPPIB stands to do well if there’s a rebound in agricultural trading, the massive but shadowy business that oversees the sales, processing and transportation of huge amounts of staples ranging from wheat and soybeans to cotton and sugar.

The global business is dominated by the so-called ABCD group of companies, composed of Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfuss. The big food traders regularly produce large profits but the past year has been disappointing for them, as bumper crops and low volatility have dragged down revenues and profits. Both Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge have seen their share prices cut by a third.

Glencore made a major foray into agricultural trading in 2012, when it paid $6-billion for Viterra, the Canadian grain handler. However, Glencore Agri, as it’s now known, saw operating profits almost halved last year, to $524-million.

Still, the company is confident of the business’s long term potential. Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of the giant miner-cum trader, made it clear in Glencore’s recent conference call that he wanted to sell only a minority stake in the business, and was seeking a partner or partners with the financial muscle to expand the business, particularly in regions where Glencore’s current operations are lacking. That fits in well with CPPIB’s stated interest in investing more in agriculture.

Analysts believe Glencore Agri would like to add acquisitions in Brazil and the United States. The deal announced Wednesday leaves a door open for Glencore to sell a further 20-per-cent stake in the unit, which could allow it to bring in yet another cash-rich partner.

It also allows either Glencore or CPPIB to call for an initial public offering of Glencore Agri after eight years. If valuations have improved by then, and the business has expanded, such an IPO could offer an attractive payback on the amount that CPPIB is paying today.

You can read CPPIB’s media release here. This is a great deal for CPPIB and I fully expect it to snap up another 20% in Glencore Agricultural Products which it has a right to do under the terms of the deal.

So why did CPPIB buy a big stake in Glencore’s agribusiness? Because it’s a very smart move for a mega pension fund with a very long investment horizon. Mark Wiseman and Mark Jenkins are scouring the globe to find attractively priced investment opportunities where they can invest a significant stake directly and when the bankers presented Glencore Agricultural Products, they wisely pounced on that deal.

Notice a pattern here? Last June, CPPIB bought a huge stake in GE’s lending arm, Antares Capital. That was its biggest deal to date — $12 billion USD — and it was backed up by $3.85 billion of the pension fund’s own money. This year, it is acquiring a 40% stake in Glencore’s agribusiness for $2.5 billion. And because of its size, it can do these massive deals on its own, a big advantage in these markets.

Also notice CPPIB is not worrying about hedge funds. That game is over, it’s for losers. Nope, CPPIB is using its comparative advantages — which include structural advantages such as a long investment horizon, scale and certainty of assets and developed advantages such as internal expertise, expert partners and a total portfolio approach — to invest massive amounts directly in very profitable businesses which offer stable cash flows over the long-run.

I’m being a little facetious here as I know CPPIB invests in a few large well-known hedge funds (you can view a list of its external hedge fund managers here) but the point I’m trying to make is the strategic focus isn’t on hedge funds, it’s on making large direct acquisitions of profitable business units of private or public companies that offer stable cash flows over the long run.

As far as Glencore, it’s shedding assets fast but it’s still reeling as there’s no end in sight to the deflation suspercycle which has pummeled commodities and leveraged commodity traders (like Glencore; see my comment on the secret club that runs the world).

The problem with Glencore is that it’s run by a bunch of cowboy commodity traders. It has some of the best commodity traders in the world but it’s focus is on short-term profits, not long-term growth (never mind what its CEO says publicly).

This is where CPPIB enters the picture. The conversation probably went something like this: “Boys, you blew your brains out taking highly leveraged commodity positions and now you’re on life support and need to shed assets to shore up your balance sheet. Let’s strike a deal” (again, I’m being facetious but with Glencore on the ropes, CPPIB got a great deal here).

And unlike Glencore, CPPIB has a long investment horizon, very deep pockets, and can sit and wait out this global stagnation cycle. No matter what happens, people still need to eat and agribusiness isn’t going to die.

Now, for individual investors, you might see this news release and think, “hey if CPPIB is buying part of Glencore’s agribusiness, it’s a good time to buy shares of agricultural stocks like Agrium (AGU), Mosaic (MOS) or Potash (POT).”

Why not? They’ve been hit hard and offer nice dividends too and now may be the time to buy and hold them for a very long time. Maybe but the problem is individual investors don’t have the staying power of a CPPIB to wait out a cycle which can last a very long time (what if global deflation takes hold?) and they could experience serious losses waiting for the cycle to turn (I continue to recommend steering clear of commodity, energy and emerging markets stocks).

It’s also worth remembering that CPPIB invests billions in both public and private markets which individual investors don’t have access to.

This is the reason why I want our politicians to get on with enhancing the CPP once and for all. It will allow Canadians to have their retirement nest egg managed by professional pension fund managers who can invest in top hedge funds and private equity funds but who can also make large direct investments in real estate, infrastructure, timberland and farmland.

In another deal that I forgot to mention, Brookfield Infrastructure Consortium to Acquire Assets of Asciano Limited, CPPIB, bcIMC and Singapore’s GIC were all part of the acquisition of Asciano, an Australian infrastructure company that focuses on transport including ports and rail assets, mostly through Patrick and Pacific National. The company provides details of this deal on its website:

On 15 March 2016 Asciano announced that it had entered into binding documentation with the “Brookfield Consortium” (Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (and certain of its affiliates) GIC Private Limited (and certain of its affiliates) and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation) and the “Qube Consortium” (Qube Holdings Limited, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Global Infrastructure Management, LLC (on behalf of itself and its managed funds and clients) and CIC Capital Corporation) in relation to the Joint Consortium Scheme including an implementation deed (Scheme Implementation Deed) and sale agreements in relation to Patrick’s container terminal business (Ports) and the Bulk & Automotive Port Services business (together BAPS).

Under the Scheme Implementation Deed, it is proposed that a vehicle (BidCo) owned directly or indirectly by CPPIB, GIP, CIC Capital, GIC and bcIMC (Rail Consortium), will acquire 100% of the issued capital of Asciano at $9.15 cash per Asciano share (reduced by the cash value of any permitted special dividend) (Scheme Consideration). The $9.15 Scheme Consideration represents the $9.28 per share announced on 23 February 2016, reduced by the amount of the interim dividend of $0.13 per share declared by Asciano on 24 February 2016 which is payable on 24 March 2016. The combined value of the $9.15 Scheme Consideration and the $0.13 interim dividend per Asciano share implies an enterprise value of approximately $12.0 billion.

The Asciano Board has considered the Joint Consortium Scheme in the context of the previously announced Qube Consortium proposal and unanimously recommends that Asciano shareholders vote in favor of the Joint Consortium Scheme in respect of all of their Asciano shares, subject to:

  • Asciano not receiving a superior proposal; and
  • an independent expert opining that the Joint Consortium Scheme is in the best interests of Asciano shareholders.

For further information please click through to the Takeover Proposal section of the website.

This is another great deal which positions bcIMC and CPPIB well for long-term global growth.

 

Photo by Andrew Seaman via Flickr CC License

New California Retirement Plan for Private-Sector Jobs

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Reporter Ed Mendel covered the California Capitol in Sacramento for nearly three decades, most recently for the San Diego Union-Tribune. More stories are at Calpensions.com.

A new California state board, Secure Choice, last week recommended that the automatic enrollment of millions of private-sector workers in a new state-run retirement savings plan begin with a safe investment: U.S. Treasury bonds for the first three years.

The board would then have time to develop options for riskier higher-yielding investments that could be protected against losses, possibly though insurance or pooling investments and eventually building a large reserve that could offset market downturns.

Several states are working on savings plans for private-sector workers with employers that do not offer a retirement plan — an estimated 6.8 million in California, who are 55 percent of workers ages 18 to 64 and earn a median wage of $23,000.

A payroll deduction is said to be a proven way to sharply increase savings. Deductions would begin at 3 or 5 percent of pay, perhaps escalating to 10 percent as years on the job increase. Workers automatically enrolled in the new state-run plan could opt out.

Employers with five or more employees but no retirement plan (typically a tax-deferred 401(k) investment plan available from many firms) would be required to offer the state savings plan. Business groups are worried about potential costs and liability.

Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, after four years of trying, obtained legislation (SB 1234 in 2012) authorizing a study of a state-run savings plan for private-sector workers with tight constraints:

A legal and market analysis not paid for by the state, exemption from federal retirement law, IRS tax deferral, and a self-sustaining plan with no employer liability or state liability for benefit payments.

Half of the $1 million raised by the nine-member Secure Choice board chaired by state Treasurer John Chiang came from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, often vilified by public employee unions for promoting public pension reform.

De Leon credits President Obama for Labor department guidelines that create a “safe harbor” for state-run plans from the federal retirement law, ERISA, which would be a burden for employers.

The board approved extending the legal contract of K&L Gates to work with two other state savings plans, Oregon and Illinois, on obtaining a Securities and Exchange Commission exemption from registering under federal securities laws.

The estimated Secure Choice startup cost is $129 million if the payroll deduction is 3 percent of pay. Consultants say a startup loan from the state could be paid off without exceeding the cap on administrative expenses: 1 percent of total assets.

Last week, as the Secure Choice board voted unanimously to recommend legislation approving a cautious start with bonds and the flexibility to add more sophisticated options later, one of the issues was protection against investment losses.

State Controller Betty Yee, a board member, asked about De Leon’s vision with his original legislation for an insurance-like “cash balance” plan, a minimum guaranteed investment return that prevents losses.

The Overture Financial consultants who did the feasibility study, Nari Rhee and Mohammed Baki, told her a guaranteed return during the early years of savings could take half of the potential return, but might work in the years before retirement.

“Legislation should allow flexibility to the board to add insurance,” said Baki. “It’s really a matter of how much is accumulated on the average account in that last 15 years.”

Sen. De Leon at Secure Choice news conference last week

Overture had recommended that the board choose one of two options: a traditional tax-deferred IRA like a 401(k) individual investment plan or an innovative pooled IRA that could build a reserve to offset investment losses.

At board hearings on the two options in Los Angeles and Oakland, a large union with members in the public and private sectors, SEIU, used news conferences and emotional personal testimony to urge the board to choose the pooled IRA.

Workers would have a “variable-rate savings bond,” going up or down with investment earnings. Annual earnings over 10 percent would go into a reserve, which in two decades might be large enough to offset losses like those in the recent financial crisis.

A powerful political force at the Capitol, the Labor Coalition of public employee unions including SEIU that represents more than one million members, sent the Secure Choice board a letter opposing the traditional IRA option.

The coalition said it’s too much like the 401(k)-style plans “anti-pension advocates propose for new public employees.” The coalition prefers the more pension-like pooled IRA, but notes difficulties with cost, implementation and SEC clearance.

A third option mentioned by the coalition is roughly similar to the recommendation adopted by the Secure Choice board: pooled investments, risk sharing with the smoothing of gains and losses, and some investment options for workers.

De Leon’s bill drew on proposals from academic research and the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems, said a report last month by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

“The NCPERS plan reflected the recognition by public employees that the quality of their own retirement coverage could be at risk if their counterparts in the private sector lack access to a retirement system,” said the report by Alicia Munnell and others.

A letter to the Secure Choice board from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said the Overture study found that “71 percent of uncovered workers” are already saving for retirement.

The association said a state-run plan would be “simply adding a new savings vehicle to an already robust market,” not filling a coverage gap that mainly results from the severe economic stresses on workers.

A coalition of 21 business groups, including the California Chamber of Commerce and the California restaurant and retailers associations, said in a letter that it lifted its opposition to the De Leon bill to allow a feasibility study.

But the business coalition still has a long list of detailed concerns, among them potential employer liability, hidden employer costs, employer and employee education about the plan, enforcement, recordkeeping, and changes in employee payroll deductions.

“The coalition also notes that simple, cost effective private market solutions may be available and yet have not been explored,” said the business coalition. “Perhaps there is a better path to addressing the ‘retirement crisis.’”

At a news conference last week, De Leon said he was interested in the reserve fund, but does not want to “let the perfect get in the way of the good.” He said the Secure Choice board’s financial background will help it collaborate with the Legislature and the governor’s office.

“What we come up with today may not be the product that we will have in two to four years,” De Leon said.

DOL Releases Fiduciary Rule; Exempts Plan Sponsor Education

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The U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday unveiled the final version of its fiduciary rule, which will apply to financial advisors and brokers who give retirement advice.

The rule, though it has been softened from previous iterations, puts in place more stringent rules requiring brokers to act in the best interest of their clients.

More from the Wall Street Journal:

About $14 trillion in retirement savings could be affected by the rule, which requires stockbrokers providing retirement advice to act as “fiduciaries” who will serve their clients’ “best interest.” That is stricter than the current standard, which only says they need to offer “suitable” recommendations, a standard that critics say has encouraged some advisers to charge excessive fees or favor investments that offer hidden commissions.

Still, reflecting intense lobbying from the financial industry that has fought the regulation since it was first proposed six years ago, the final version includes a number of modifications aimed at softening some of the most contentious provisions.

Among such changes: extending the implementation period of the rule beyond the end of the current administration; giving advisers more flexibility to keep touting their firm’s own mutual funds and other products; and curbing the paperwork and disclosure requirements.

[…]

The latest rule also clarifies that brokers and others can continue offering a wide range of guidance without having to clear the “fiduciary” bar for “advice.” It specifies that investor education isn’t considered advice, allowing companies to continue providing general education on retirement savings. Also excluded from the advice category are general circulation newsletters, media talk shows and commentaries as well as general marketing materials.

For a great explainer on the rule, check out this Reuters piece.

A Requiem For Hedge Funds?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Timothy W. Martin and Rob Copeland of the Wall Street Journal report, Investors Pull Cash From Hedge Funds as Returns Lag Market:

Marc Levine, chairman of the $16 billion Illinois State Board of Investment, had a provocative question this month during a board meeting about hedge funds.

“Why do I need you?” Mr. Levine asked. A lot of big investors are asking the same question.

Pension funds, insurers and university endowments helped pump up hedge funds to a record $3 trillion in assets over the last decade. But with results falling behind a more traditional mix of stocks and bonds for six straight years and the high-fee structure now politically sensitive in some states due to uneven results, many of them are pulling back.

From New Mexico to New York, big investors are dramatically reducing their commitments and opting for cheaper imitations. Investors globally asked for more money back from hedge funds than they contributed in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to HFR Inc.—the first net quarterly withdrawal in four years. They pulled an additional $15.3 billion in this year’s first two months, according to eVestment.

The exodus will soon include the Illinois fund overseen by Mr. Levine. Two days after he questioned whether hedge funds were necessary, the board that oversees investments for about 64,000 public employees agreed to yank $1 billion from them in favor of bigger bets on private-equity and low-cost stock funds. One of the investments that Illinois exited from, Mr. Levine said, includes exposure to hedge fund Pershing Square Capital. The New York fund was down more than 20% through last week largely because of a losing bet on drug maker Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.

A Pershing Square spokesman declined to comment on the Illinois exit or performance.

Plenty of big institutions are still keeping money in hedge funds, as managers promise protection from an economic downturn. But longtime investors are increasingly frustrated about losses that intensified when markets turned more volatile over the last year.

American International Group Inc. said last month it would cut the $11 billion it had earmarked for hedge funds in half. Citing poor performance by those investments, the insurer said it would reallocate the money to more straight-forward bonds and commercial mortgages managed internally instead.

Others are retreating because some of the investment strategies once available only at hedge funds can now be purchased at a fraction of the cost from other asset managers. These products, coined “liquid alternatives” or “multi-asset,” can make bets on low volatility or the direction of interest rates without using as much leverage, or borrowed money, to supercharge returns.

Hedge funds typically charge higher fees than other money managers, historically an annual 2% of assets under management and 20% of profits. Some new competitors say they offer similar techniques for less than 1% of assets and a zero cut of any profits.

Northern Trust Corp. , for example, charges a management fee of less than 1% for a new “engineered equity” product that it says is similar in approach to a hedge fund. It uses models—instead of traders—to bundle together stocks that limit volatility or market risk, said Mike Hunstad, head of quantitative research for the Chicago-based firm.

The proliferation of lower-price alternatives is one reason the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund decided last month to end its $500 million hedge-fund program.

The commitment was expensive, said Dhvani Shah, the plan’s chief investment officer.

“So do I really want to scale up?” she said. “The answer is no.”

Overall, big investors pulled an additional $19.75 billion out of hedge funds in January, according to eVestment. That was the largest outflow for the year’s first month since 2009. Clients added $4.4 billion in February, but that was well below the $22.6 billion average for that month from 2010 to 2015, eVestment said.

It is too soon to know if those dismal showings will persist. Plenty of big investors still have huge sums committed to the industry.

Endowments and foundations, for example, cut their investments in hedge funds last year for the first time since Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service started tracking the data in 2001. Yet the asset class still accounted for 8.62% of their portfolios through Dec. 31, according to Wilshire.

Hedge-fund commitments as a percentage of U.S. public pension-plan portfolios have dropped from a peak of 2.31% in 2012 to 1.37% at the end of 2015, according to Wilshire.

One hedge-fund manager, TIG Advisors President Spiros Maliagros, said he believes investors will continue to seek out firms like his for the chance to do better than they would with mainstream investments. But he said the industry needs to be clearer that returns aim to diversify and ease the impact of market swings, not simply earn the highest payouts.

“It’s an expectation setting that I think we need to do a better job of,” he said.

The board that oversees Florida’s public pension money, the Florida State Board of Administration, has $3.9 billion invested in hedge funds and no plans to reduce the commitment.

“Our objectives have been met,” said Ash Williams, a former hedge-fund executive who now runs the Florida board.

Hedge-fund managers are seeking new ways to quiet any investor unease. Some are now pitching their own lower-cost products that bear little resemblance to the industry’s traditional offerings in price.

AQR Capital Management is among the large hedge-fund firms that now offer cheaper alternatives to their main funds. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest public pension, has kept $578 million invested with AQR in a lower-cost product that relies on automated bets even as it announced an exit from all hedge funds in 2014.

“It’s been priced as if it was all super special,” said AQR Managing Principal Clifford Asness. “There is stuff still out there sold as magic, but there are simpler, cheaper options that accomplish much of the same thing.”

There most definitely are simpler, cheaper options than hedge funds. A couple of weeks ago, I visited the offices of OpenMind Capital here in Montreal where Karl Gauvin and Paul Turcotte gave me a presentation on their approach analyzing the volatility of volatility to deliver much better risk-adjusted results than the CBOE Put Writing Index (see their dynamic option writing strategy).

To my surprise, they met a few potential clients here in Quebec which were reluctant to even try this strategy fearing any put writing strategy is doomed to fail if another 2008 happens. This just goes to show you how ignorant many investors are in terms of put writing strategies (click on image):

The numbers are all there on the CBOE’s website and I can guarantee you sophisticated hedge funds, pension funds and endowment funds are already implementing some form of a put writing strategy internally. I told Karl and Paul to “open their mind” (no pun or insult intended) and start approaching sophisticated investors outside Quebec. I also invited them to write a blog comment on their approach and strategies to educate less sophisticated investors on these strategies.

Anyways, back to a requiem for hedge funds. I recently discussed the bonfire of the hedge funds, going over why so many hedge funds closed shop in 2015 and how even top performers of last year — like Citadel, Millennium and Blackstone’s Senfina — are struggling so far this year.

Moreover, a bunch of the top-performing hedge funds stumbled in March and hedge fund momentum trades blew up in Q1, suffering their worst losses since 2009 (I personally think this is a great opportunity to load up on biotech shares which got slaughtered in Q1).

In short, ultra low and negative rates are making this a brutal environment for all hedge funds, especially larger ones unable to cope with huge market volatility. And that’s a structural change that isn’t going to go away, especially if global deflation sets in.

Frustrated, many institutional investors are looking to illiquid alternatives like real estate, private equity and infrastructure. But they carry illiquidity risk which can sting over a shorter investment horizon (even if pensions typically hold these assets over a long investment horizon).

Institutional investors that refuse to give up on hedge funds are tightening the screws. Chris Flood of the Financial Times reports, Sovereign wealth funds push for higher hedge fund standards:

The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds has signed an agreement with a large hedge fund association to push for better governance standards in the alternative investment industry.

The agreement is aimed at tackling issues in the hedge fund industry that have long concerned institutional investors, such as a lack of transparency around funds’ liquidity terms in stressed market conditions.

Many large investors, including sovereign wealth funds, were angered during the financial crisis when hedge funds imposed “gates” on their clients, preventing investors from pulling money out.

Alex Millar, head of sovereigns for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Invesco Asset Management, the US fund house, said: “Some hedge fund investments turned out to be less liquid than expected. There was a discrepancy between the risks taken and the risks that were anticipated.”

The poor performance of many hedge funds since the financial crisis and their high fees remain sources of frustration among institutional investors.

The head of sovereign funds at a US investment bank, who did not wish to be named, added that there was room to improve the alignment of interests between long-term investors and hedge fund managers.

“Structuring long-term mandates in exchange for fee discounts and agreeing the appropriate performance targets and incentives between hedge fund managers and long-term asset owners is challenging,” he said.

To improve the relationship between sovereign funds and their hedge fund clients, the IFSWF has established a “mutual observer” agreement with the Hedge Fund Standards Board, an association that works with 120 hedge fund managers that collectively manage $800bn in assets.

Adrian Orr, chief executive of the New Zealand Superfund and chairman of the IFSWF, which represents a third of the world’s 90 sovereign funds, said: “This relationship will help ensure that sovereign wealth funds have a voice in the hedge fund standard-setting process.”

Is there room to improve alignment of interests between hedge funds and large institutional investors? You better believe it and it’s about time these large sovereign wealth funds demand lower fees and better alignment of interests.

As far as large pension funds, most of them have given up on hedge funds but not the more sophisticated ones like the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. Last week, its CEO Ron Mock shared this with me when going over OTPP’s 2015 results:

“2015 was a scratch year for external hedge funds and internal absolute return trading activities. In a volatile market like 2015, you wouldn’t expect outperformance in these activities but they didn’t dent the total portfolio either.”

But Ron also told me Teachers’ takes a ‘total portfolio approach’ and external hedge funds and internal alpha trading activities figure in prominently in this approach.

I’m not too worried about Ontario Teachers’ when it comes to external hedge funds. Ron Mock has mentored Jonathan Hausman who is responsible for the Fund’s global hedge fund portfolio, as well as its internal global macro and systematic trading strategies. And Jonathan has an unbelievable team made up of people like Daniel MacDonald (best hedge fund portfolio manager I ever met) to help him oversee that portfolio during these tough times.

But other large pension funds have followed CalPERS and exited hedge funds altogether. Still, it’s far from being a lost cause for hedge funds. Lea Huhtala of the Financial Times reports, Finland’s state pension scheme to boost hedge fund assets:

Finland’s state pension scheme plans to invest another $500m in hedge funds this year despite persistent concerns over performance and high fees within the sector.

The move will be welcome news for the hedge fund industry, which has had to contend with a number of large investors either scrapping or scaling back their allocations.

Railpen, one of the UK’s largest pension schemes, finished a drawn-out reduction of its hedge funds assets last year, and now has just a 2 per cent exposure to hedge funds.

Europe’s second-largest public pension fund, PFZW, cut its entire €4.2bn hedge fund allocation last year.

VER, Finland’s state pension fund, intends to increase its allocations to hedge funds and other complex strategies to 6 per cent of its total $20bn portfolio. This is despite its existing hedge fund assets returning only 2.5 per cent in 2015 while its overall portfolio returned 4.9 per cent.

The pension fund currently allocates 3 per cent of its assets to hedge funds.

Timo Viherkenttä, VER’s chief executive, said: “We are aiming for a higher return than 2.5 per cent, but considering where the overall hedge fund market is now, the return was not too bad.”

A typical hedge fund charges investors a fixed management fee of 2 per cent and a further 20 per cent performance fee on returns the hedge fund manager generates.

According to figures released by State Street, the financial services provider, in February, nearly half of global pension funds plan to increase their exposure to single-strategy hedge funds over the next three years.

Nordic investors showed the most interest. Nearly 63 per cent of the Nordic pension funds surveyed planned to increase their single-manager hedge fund allocations in the next three years.

However, the survey showed investors have become more demanding. Ian Mills, a partner at LCP, the pension fund consultancy, said: “Investors are much more selective about the funds they are investing in. If you are going to pay 2 per cent per annum management fees and 20 per cent for performance, then you really want the best.”

Much more selective? They typically follow the advice of useless investment consultants that shove them in the hottest hedge funds they should be avoiding (don’t get me started on this nonsense).

When I read articles on how Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is down 25% so far this year, I cringe in horror thinking of how many public pensions are invested with this fund and are now praying Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) won’t turn out be the Canadian pharmaceutical equivalent of Nortel.

And like I said before, it’s easy to beat up on a high profile hedge fund honcho like Bill Ackman but he’s not alone. Fortune’s Nathan Vardi reports, Jeffrey Ubben’s ValueAct Capital, another big Valeant investor, has been sued by the U.S. government for violating pre-merger reporting requirements in connection with the hedge fund’s purchase of $2.5 billion of Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BHI) shares.

So, is it a requiem for hedge funds? Of course not. As long as large institutional investors search for ‘uncorrelated yield’, top hedge funds will continue to do well.

But the landscape for the hedge fund industry is irrevocably changing and in a deflationary world where ultra low rates and the new negative normal reign, institutional investors will be demanding much lower fees and much better alignment of interests from all their hedge funds.

As I warned all of you last October, the shakeout in the hedge fund industry is far from over. You can listen to all the excuses in the world, but I’m telling you, the deflation tsunami is coming, and this means ultra low or negative rates and huge volatility are here to stay. That alone will clobber many large hedge funds unable to cope with unprecedented volatility (makes you wonder which hedge funds are loading up on bonds).

 

Photo by thinkpanama via Flickr CC License

Canada Pension Buys Glencore Agriculture Unit for $2.5 Billion

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The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) this week entered an agreement to buy 40 percent of Glencore’s agricultural unit.

Glencore is a commodity trading and mining company.

More from Reuters:

The sale values the agricultural unit as a whole at close to the initially expected $10 billion, including $0.6 billion in debt and $2.5 billion in inventories, and comes after Glencore said last month it was stepping up its debt reduction plan by unloading more assets.

[…]

The purchase is by the pension fund’s investment unit, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which seeks long-term low-risk investments.

“Glencore Agri complements our existing portfolio of agriculture assets, bringing global exposure, scale and diversification,” CPPIB’s global head of private investments, Mark Jenkins, said in a statement

Glencore expects the agriculture deal to complete in the second half of 2016. The business comprises more than 200 storage facilities globally, 31 processing facilities and 23 ports, allowing Glencore to trade grains, oilseeds, rice, sugar and cotton.

It generated core earnings of $524 million in 2015 and had gross assets of more than $10 billion.

Under the agreement, Glencore has the right to sell up to a further 20 percent stake. Glencore and CPPIB may also call for an initial public offering of Glencore Agri after eight years from the date of completion, the companies said.

CPPIB managed $282.6 billion (CAD) in assets as of late 2015.

 

Photo credit: “Canada blank map” by Lokal_Profil image cut to remove USA by Paul Robinson – Vector map BlankMap-USA-states-Canada-provinces.svg.Modified by Lokal_Profil. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons – http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_blank_map.svg#mediaviewer/File:Canada_blank_map.svg

World’s Largest Pension May Announce Largest Annual Loss Since Financial Crisis

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This summer, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund will release its FY 2015-16 annual results.

The report is likely to contain some bad news: an annual loss of about $54 billion, possibly the largest loss for the pension fund since the financial crisis.

More from Bloomberg:

The $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund will on July 29 announce what may be its worst annual loss since the global financial crisis — about three weeks later than usual and after an upper house poll that must be held before July 25. SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. estimates the decline for the fiscal year ended March at as much as 6 trillion yen ($54 billion).

[…]

In 2014, GPIF announced a shift from bonds into stocks as it sought higher returns for Japan’s rapidly-aging population and assets that would do better in an inflationary environment. That initially worked well, with the fund posting a 12 percent return in the year through March 2015.

Since then, asset managers have struggled amid a global downturn in equities. Japan’s Topix index is down 24 percent from an August peak. GPIF lost 511 billion yen in the nine months through December, its quarterly results show. SMBC Nikko estimates the fund slumped by 5 trillion yen in the three months through March, as the Topix fell 13 percent and the yen strengthened.

“Having the announcement so late can only be out of a desire to reveal the losses after even a delayed House of Councillors election,” said Michael Cucek, an adjunct fellow at Temple University’s Japan campus. The extent of the damage it will cause to the administration is unclear, he said.

The GPIF oversees $1.2 trillion in assets.

 

Photo by Ville Miettinen via Flickr CC License

Two Ex-State Street Execs Charged With Defrauding Pension Fund Clients

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U.S. prosecutors on Tuesday announced charges against two former State Street executives who allegedly defrauded a handful of clients, including pension funds in the U.K. and Ireland.

Prosecutors allege that between 2010 and 2011, the two execs added hidden fees to transactions conducted by the pension funds. It didn’t take long for one of the funds to ask whether it had been overcharged.

More from Reuters:

Ross McLellan, a former State Street executive vice president, was arrested on charges including securities fraud and wire fraud, prosecutors said. The indictment was filed in federal court in Boston, where the custody bank is based.

The indictment also charged Edward Pennings, a former senior managing director at State Street who is believed to be living overseas and was not arrested, prosecutors said.

[…]

The case followed a 2014 settlement between State Street and the UK Financial Conduct Authority in which the bank paid a fine of £22.9 million (about $37.8 million) for charging the six clients “substantial mark-ups” on certain transitions.

According to the U.S. indictment, McLellan, Pennings and others conspired from February 2010 to September 2011 to add secret commissions to fixed income and equity trades performed for the six clients of a unit of the bank.

The commissions came on top of fees the clients had agreed to pay and despite written instructions to the bank’s traders that the clients should not be charged trading commissions, prosecutors said.

Both McLellan and Pennings took steps to hide the commissions from the clients and others within the bank, prosecutors said. They said the scheme had come to light after one client in 2011 inquired whether it had been overcharged.

The case is U.S. v. McLellan, U.S. District Court, District of Massachusetts, 16-cr-10094.

 

Photo by TaxRebate.org.uk via Flickr CC License

Pension Pulse: On Pensions and the Wall Street Mob?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Elliot Blair Smith of MarketWatch reports, How the Teamsters pension disappeared more quickly under Wall Street than the mob:

Real estate investments in Las Vegas casinos and hotels once threatened the integrity of a Teamsters pension fund that the federal government wrested away from corrupt trustees and organized crime after five years of legal battles.

A quarter-century later, the professionals who replaced them—Central States Pension Fund administrators; the Goldman Sachs & Co. and Northern Trust Global Advisors fiduciaries; and Department of Labor regulators—stood watch while the financial markets accomplished what the mob had failed to: which was to smash the fund’s long-term solvency with massive money-losing investments.

The debacle unfolding at the $16.1 billion Central States fund in Rosemont, Illinois, is a cautionary tale for all Americans dependent on their retirement savings. Unable to reverse a decades-long outflow of benefits payments over pension contributions, the professional money managers placed big bets on stocks and non-traditional investments between 2005 and 2008, with catastrophic consequences.

When the experiment blew up, rather than exhume the devastated portfolio to better understand the problem—and perhaps seek accountability—Central States administrators lobbied Congress to pass legislation giving them authority to cut retirement benefits by up to 50% after Treasury Department approval.

That’s close to Central States’ astonishing 42% drop in assets—and a loss of about $11.1 billion in seed capital—in just 15 months during 2008 and early 2009. And while the investment losses are not the source of the retirement plan’s unsustainability today, they accelerated the pension’s problems, and almost certainly made the benefits cuts deeper. The professionals made more money disappear in a shorter period of time than the mobsters ever dreamed of.

The Treasury Department under Special Master Kenneth Feinberg—who previously administered the 9/11 victims fund, and kept a rein on executive compensation at financial companies that received taxpayer assistance during the financial markets crisis—now has until May 7 to review an 8,000-page application by Central States to reduce the average pension benefit by 22% for more than 400,000 American workers, retirees, dependents and survivors.

In practice, some pensioners approaching retirement age—like 64-year-old Thomas Holmes of Avon, Indiana—expect to see about a 50% benefit cut after 31 years of hard work. And while Congress and the Central States administrators may have correctly identified and assessed one side of the problem—insufficient pension contributions to pay for benefits obligations—I’m suggesting that the fund’s investment portfolio also went off track, possibly beginning in 2005, or earlier.

That’s when federal tax authorities agreed to defer a statutory funding-deficiency notice for a decade, under an accord that required Central States to immediately begin repairing the pension’s finances. And it corresponds to increased allocations of stocks, particularly compared to most Taft-Hartley union plans, and also lower-rated bonds, including mortgage securities.

The 10-year IRS extension was scheduled to expire in 2015, coinciding with the nuclear solution of legislated benefits cuts that passed in December 2014.

This February, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) asked the Government Accountability Office to inform Congress on a series of concerns, among them:

  • Was the allocation of Central States investments consistent with comparable pension plans that have managed to remain solvent?
  • Has the Labor Department appropriately reviewed Central States’ decisions regarding changes in investment managers and strategies?
  • Has Labor maintained proper oversight of a special independent counsel whose appointment was a condition of the 1982 federal consent decree that broke the grip of organized crime at the fund?

“While Central States is not the only multiemployer pension fund that is facing severe funding issues,” Grassley wrote, “what is unique is the role the federal government has played in the operations of the fund since at least 1982.” The consent decree, he noted, “granted DOL considerable oversight authority as to the selection of independent fund managers as well as changes in investment strategies. DOL was further granted oversight of a court-appointed independent counsel.”

As we await the government watchdog agency’s response, I aim to fill in some gaps never addressed during the limited public debate over the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act in late 2014. That law laid the historic groundwork to cut benefits at pensions deemed to be in “critical and declining status.”

Central States is considered to be a multiemployer plan because thousands of independent trucking companies paid into a shared retirement fund for union drivers. One problem with multiemployer plans is that as some employers went bankrupt, or otherwise shirked their obligations, the remaining employers faced larger liabilities, and the pensioners fewer funds.

Today, only three of the plan’s 50 largest employers from 1980 still pay into the plan. And for each active employee, it has 5.2 retired or inactive participants.

Labor Department investigators fought a heroic battle against corrupt trustees and mob influence decades ago, culminating in the 1982 consent decree to “assure that the fund’s assets are managed for the sole benefit of the plan’s … beneficiaries,” according to a July 1985 report by the Government Accountability Office. At issue then were more than $518 million in real estate loans involving “apparent significant fiduciary violations and imprudent practices,” the GAO said.

Under the decree, a new fiduciary—originally, Morgan Stanley—was granted “exclusive responsibility and authority to 1) control and manage the fund’s assets; 2) appoint, replace, and remove investment managers; 3) allocate fund investment assets … and 4) monitor the performance of all investment managers,” the GAO said.

Union officials and company executives who served as pension trustees were removed from investment decision-making, but that did “not diminish” their obligation “to monitor the performance of the fund’s investment managers, or relieve (them) of any (other) fiduciary liability,” the GAO said.

Instead, trustees were to be consulted when investment objectives or policies changed. Any such changes also had to be reported to the secretary of Labor and the independent special counsel, and ultimately be approved in federal court.

Rudy Giuliani, then the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, followed up Labor’s efforts with a racketeering lawsuit in 1988 to smash the “devil’s pact” between organized crime and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters that allegedly included mail fraud, embezzlement and murder.

In “one of the most ambitious lawsuits in U.S. history,” federal prosecutors helped expel more than 500 union officers and members, according to the legal scholars James B. Jacobs and Dimitri Portnoi. Yet the consent decree also had the effect of replacing a strong union hand at the pension with multiple layers of administrative, managerial and regulatory oversight, none with particularly strong incentives to protect the fund before, during, or after the financial markets crisis.

The Central States administrator itself “is not responsible for the fund’s asset allocation and management of the fund’s investments,” Executive Director Tom Nyhan told me. Rather, investments were the exclusive province of the fiduciaries—Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust during the crisis—who were vetted and approved by the Labor Department, under the consent decree. In turn, while Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust were paid a fee based on assets under management, they didn’t invest the portfolio directly but hired managers to do so.

And Labor Department spokesman Michael Trupo conveyed a statement that described the government regulator as rubber stamp, at best.

“The department’s role under the consent decree is limited to reviewing proposed trustees and named fiduciaries before they are appointed; [and] reviewing proposed changes to the investment policy statement prior to implementation,” Trupo said. “While the department may object to actions proposed or discovered in its review, the court order gives the department no role in the day-to-day operation or investment decision-making of the fund.”

One more layer

Still, that left one more layer to help safeguard the retirement plan: the special independent counsel who reports to the federal court under the 2002 consent decree. During the financial crisis, the special counsel was former federal judge Frank McGarr, who died in January 2012 at age 90 “after a long struggle with Parkinson’s disease,” according to his obituary. He’d tendered his resignation four months earlier but temporarily continued to fulfill the assignment.

McGarr’s reports are among the few public records available about how the pension and its fiduciaries wrestled with their finances. And these records are invaluable. But McGarr produced only three quarterly reports during the final year of his service, and there were other untimely lapses even though presiding Judge Milton Shadur credited the reports as “thorough,” “detailed” and meticulous”—so much so they “obviated any need for further questioning or commentary.”

When I asked Central States Executive Director Nyhan how vigorous the special independent counsel was during the later years, when the retirement plan came under such great financial stress, he replied, “I take great offense to your veiled accusation” that McGarr “was unable to fulfill his responsibilities because he was of advanced age and suffered from Parkinson’s disease. … Judge McGarr may have been suffering from Parkinson’s, but he was in no way infirm.”

In contrast, the late judge’s daughter, Patricia DiMaria, took no exception. “He was in a wheelchair, but mentally he was very sharp,” she told me.

What remains of the Central States fund clawed its way back in recent years, in part after Goldman Sachs resigned the account. But the unrecovered losses ensured that the fund would start over at a much smaller base, and be unlikely to ever close the huge gap in its unfunded liabilities. Today, only pensioners are to be held accountable. And that is why the long, torturous tale of this tragic fund should resonate for all Americans. No social safety net is secure without reliable guardians.

In response to Sen. Grassley’s questions to the GAO, I offer the following:

Q: Was the allocation of Central States investments consistent with comparable pension plans that have managed to remain solvent?

A: No. Central States’ portfolio allocation was about two-thirds stocks, and less than one-third bonds entering the 2008 financial markets crisis. That is much more aggressive than the 48% median allocation to stocks by all Taft-Hartley Union plans at the beginning of 2008; and well above the median allocation of 59% of Taft-Hartley plans with assets of more than $2 billion.

What’s more, Central States’ investment loss of 29.81% in 2008 exceeded the 25.9% loss of its median peer, as well as the 20.46% median decline of all Taft-Hartley plans, according to data prepared for MarketWatch by Wilshire Associates. And Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust each underperformed their investment benchmarks for the fund in at least three out of four years, from 2006 through 2009.

“Even skilled and prudent asset managers incur losses, and no asset manager or process can guarantee gains during every period during every set of market conditions. They were particularly challenging market conditions during 2008,” Goldman Sachs spokesman Andrew Williams told me. He said that Goldman Sachs produced overall positive returns from August 1999 to July 2010.

Northern Trust spokesman John O’Connell said that “to protect client confidentiality, Northern Trust does not discuss specific clients or details about their programs, including investment performance.”

Q: Has the Labor Department appropriately reviewed Central States’ decisions regarding changes in investment managers and strategies?

A: Labor spokesman Trupo replies: “While the department may object to actions proposed or discovered in its review, the court gives the department no role in the day-to-day operation or investment decision-making of the fund.”

I’m not sure that answers if Labor provided appropriate oversight but it does suggest that the government regulator was not very proactive.

Trupo also provided me with the statement that: “The chief problem facing the Central States plan has been underfunding. Trucking deregulation in the 1980s exacerbated the funding problem because of the dramatic contraction of the industry, and the accelerated number of contributing employer bankruptcies that rapidly and substantially reduced the fund’s contribution base. At the same time, those bankruptcies substantially increased the fund’s legacy costs with no foreseeable way to make up those lost contributions. These converging factors, rather than poor investment strategy or performance, were primarily responsible for the severe underfunding that the fund is now experiencing.”

Q: Has Labor maintained proper oversight of a special independent counsel whose appointment was a condition of the 1982 federal consent decree?

A: Trupo: “The special counsel is chosen by the court, not the department.”

This suggests that Labor did not provide active oversight.

Finally, Central States’ benefits-slashing application to Treasury says “the Trustees have taken all reasonable measures to avoid insolvency of the plan.” The request elicited about 2,800 comments to Treasury officials, and 5,500 more to the fund. On their behalf, and all 400,000 pensioners, I’d like to be sure of the answer.

“We are not bonus-receiving bankers riding the coattails of bad decisions asking for a bailout,” says David Maxey, a retired Teamster in Indiana, who faces a monthly benefit cut of half to $1,151 a month. “We are over 400,000 blue-collar Americans asking for some fair consideration. When this is scheduled to go into effect, I will be 68 years old. Walking a freight dock or driving a truck are not likely.”

This excellent analysis is the first of a two-part series on the Central States Pension Fund. The second part will look more closely into why its investment performance suffered.

I’ve already covered the withering of Teamsters’ pension and ended it on this sobering note:

[…] it’s high time the United States of America goes Dutch on pensions and follows the Canadian model of pension governance. Now more than ever, the U.S. needs to enhance Social Security for all Americans and implement the governance model that has worked so well in Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden (and even improve on it).

I know, for Americans, these are all “socialist” countries with heavy government involvement and there is no way in hell the U.S. will ever tinker with Social Security to bolster it. Well, that’s too bad because take it from me, there is nothing socialist about providing solid public education, healthcare and pensions to your citizens. Good policies in all three pillars of democracy will bolster the American economy over the very long-run and lower debt and social welfare costs.

If U.S. policymakers stay the course, they will have a much bigger problem down the road. Already, massive inequality is wiping out the middle class. Companies are hoarding record cash levels — over $2 trillion in offshore banks — and the guys and gals on Wall Street are making off like bandits as profits hit $11.3 billion in the last six months.

Good times for everyone, right? Wrong! Capitalism cannot sustain massive inequality over a long period and while some think labor will rise again as the deflationary supercycle (supposedly) ends, I worry that things will get much worse before they get better.

In our conversation last week, Ron Mock, CEO of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, expressed the same concerns when he reviewed the plan’s 2015 results:

“I worry about aging demographics and people retiring with no pension. We do our part in ensuring a small subset of the population has their retirement needs addressed for the future.”

Unlike the Central State pension fund, Chicago’s pension plan or most U.S. public pensions which are doomed, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan are both enjoying a funded status that most pension plans can only dream of.

Let me go back to this pie chart that I posted when I went over Ontario Teachers’ 2015 results (click on image):

When people ask me why I’m such a stickler for large, well-governed defined-benefit plans, I point out charts like the one above to make my case. If you’re looking for a solution to the global retirement crisis, this is it, right there in that chart.

Yes, it’ true, Ontario Teachers and HOOPP do all sorts of sophisticated derivatives strategies to cleverly leverage up their portfolio, something which other pensions can’t do either because they lack the internal expertise or because laws prohibit them from leveraging up their portfolio.

But this isn’t the main factor which explains their funded status relative to most U.S. or even Canadian plans. The two main factors which explain the outperformance of Ontario Teachers’ and HOOPP are:

  1. Good governance that allows them to attract and retain qualified investment managers to manage assets internally at a fraction of the cost and
  2. A shared risk model that allows them to sit down with their stakeholders to implement conditional inflation protection (or other options) if the plan becomes underfunded.

And by the way, it’s not just Ontario Teachers and HOOPP that are fully funded in Canada. In Ontario, for example, other smaller plans which adopted a shared risk model like CAAT and OPTrust are also fully funded plans.

And even though I highlighted problems with some Canadian corporate plans getting hit by the loonie, the reality is most Canadian pension plans are in far better shape than their U.S. counterparts because they got the governance right and implemented a shared risk model.

By the way, following my last comment, I received an email from Bernard Dussault, Canada’s former Chief Actuary, stating the following:

The solvency basis for the valuation of defined benefit pension plan liabilities, which is dictated by accounting standards, portrays a distorted and inaccurate picture of most, if not all, DB plans financial status because it requires that the assumed long term yield on the plan fund be set equal to the current average market interest rates rather than the realistically higher projected yield on the fund.

Indeed, pension funds portfolios are normally much diversified among equities, infrastructures, real estate, etc., and generally comprise only a relatively small proportion of interest bearing vehicles such as bonds.

Therefore liabilities are, through the solvency valuation basis, unrealistically:

  • overestimated when interest rates are low, thereby unduly overestimating the plan’s debt;
  • underestimated when interest rates are high, thereby unduly overestimating the plan’s surplus.

In other words, DB plans financial status is actually not too bad on average and far from as bad as revealed by solvency valuations when interest rates are low. And it would be quite OK rather than not too bad if federal and provincial pension-related legislation would once and for all fully prohibit contributions holidays after a plan experiences a surplus.

I agree with Bernard on prohibiting contribution holidays once and for all and he makes an excellent point that the solvency basis for determining the valuation of a DB plans distorts the funded status of a plan, but bonds are still the measure of risk-free assets and all other assets are valued in relation to bonds (listen to Bill Gross explain it here).

Moreover, it all depends on where pension plans are currently valued. When I discuss Canadian DB plans that are 80% funded, I’m not as worried as when I discuss U.S. DB plans that are 60%, 50% or 40% funded.

In other words, the current funded status matters a lot. The starting point matters and as Ron Mock and Jim Keohane keep reminding me, all pensions are path dependent, which means they can’t sustain a big drop in their assets, especially when rates are at historic lows and deflation is knocking on our door. This forces public pensions to pile on risk after a huge drawdown in the hopes of regaining fully funded (or more likely, 80% funded status) and that’s the last thing they should be doing, especially if they are a mature plan paying out more in benefits than they receive in contributions.

Look at what happened to the Central States Pension Fund. It’s a textbook example of bad governance, gross mismanagement and terrible investment decisions. And it’s going to be workers and pensioners who will bear the brunt of years of gross negligence.

Of course, the sharks on Wall Street couldn’t care less. They are there to bleed these public pensions dry. They routinely gouge pensions on fees on structured products, hedge funds, private equity funds, currencies, commodities, derivatives, you name it. If they can collect a big fat fee or spread by”ripping their face off”, they’ll do it and they couldn’t care less about millions retiring in pension poverty.

And to add insult upon injury, you have a hedge fund legend and maestro central banker warning us of the looming catastrophe linked to entitlement spending run amok (never mind the facts or that productivity is grossly understated or that trillions are parked in offshore accounts). Nope, go after grandma and grandpa and screw workers by cutting their Social Security benefits.

All this to say while the movies love vilifying the mob, it’s the legalized mob on Wall Street that should concern you because while most Americans are going to retire in poverty, the financial parasites on Wall Street will always find ways to make off like bandits no matter how poorly pensions and 401(k)s are doing.

 

Photo by  Dirk Knight via Flickr CC License


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