illinois credit rating

How Credit Rating Agencies Reacted to Illinois Pension Ruling

None of the three major rating agencies changed their outlook on Illinois’ credit in the wake of a lower court ruling that deemed the state’s pension reform law unconstitutional.

But rating agencies are certainly keeping a close watch on the state as the reform law moves up to the Supreme Court. And all three agencies had something to say after the ruling.

Moody’s had the harshest take, calling the ruling “credit negative” that leaves the door open for a rating downgrade. Summarized by Governing:

[Moody’s] issued an analysis on Nov. 24 that said the “state’s negative outlook indicates the possibility that factors such as further growth in the state’s pension liabilities will drive the rating lower still.” The state is appealing the decision to the Illinois Supreme Court but Moody’s was wary of its chances and pointed out that the top court this summer indicated in a separate case on retiree health benefits that would adhere strictly to the pension protection clause.

A top Moody’s official commented further in a WUIS report:

“The average state from our perspective or the expected rating for a state is AA1, which is our second highest rating. And so Illinois is A3, so that’s five rating notches below that,” said Ted Hampton, a Vice President at Moody’s Investor Service. “Which is to say, it’s still an investment-grade rating. It’s still a strong rating in the context of every kind of security that we rate. But it’s far below all of the other states.”

Hampton says Moody’s saw Illinois’ passage of the pension overhaul as beneficial, but not enough to move the credit ratings needle – because a court challenge was suspected. The recent court ruling likewise wasn’t not enough to prompt a change, though Moody’s called the decision “credit negative” in a notice sent out Tues., Nov. 24.

“We do get a lot of inquiries about states, particularly Illinois where there are problems that are in the news, and where the situation is in flux. And publishing these comments helps us get our opinion out to those investors, or to the general public,” Hampton said.

Fitch and S&P said the pension ruling didn’t move the needle much as far as the state’s credit rating. From Governing:

Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s were far more forgiving. Both said they had already factored in the likelihood of court challenge into their current ratings for Illinois. “More importantly, from a credit perspective,” S&P added, savings from the pension reform are not included in the fiscal 2015 budget.”

Interestingly, Fitch’s main concern wasn’t the pension ruling. Instead, the agency said the real concern was the expiration of several tax increases. From Governing:

Fitch did note another trouble spot for Illinois’ credit lurking just ahead: the scheduled expiration of temporary tax increases in 2015. “The state passed a placeholder budget for the current fiscal year with a stated intent to revisit the issue after the November elections,” Fitch said. “Taking steps to address the long-standing structural mismatch between revenues and spending would put the state on more solid financial footing, while failure to take action would be a return to past practices and leave the state poorly positioned to confront future downturns.”

Illinois Borrowing Costs To Rise In Wake of Ruling Overturning Pension Reform

Illinois already has the lowest credit rating of any state in the country. But it could see its borrowing costs rise further after a court law week overturned the state’s pension reform law.

From Bloomberg:

Illinois bonds are set to weaken after a judge struck down a plan to address the biggest pension deficit among U.S. states, according to Wells Capital Management.

Illinois 10-year obligations yield 3.68 percent, or about 1.4 percentage points above benchmark municipal debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At that yield spread, the smallest since July, the debt isn’t attractive given the legal developments and the potential financial strain, said Robert Miller, who helps oversee $35 billion of munis at Wells Capital.

The lowest-rated U.S. state plans to appeal the Nov. 21 ruling that its constitution protects cuts to public pensions, which face a $111 billion shortfall. The decision marks the latest challenge to emerge for the incoming governor, Bruce Rauner, who takes office Jan. 12. He also has to grapple with a $2 billion budget hole from expiring increases to income-tax rates.

“You would expect on this news that spreads would widen out,” said Miller, who’s based in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. “The pension is definitely a looming problem and something they need to deal with.”

Some Illinois bonds weakened after last week’s pension decision. Taxable debt maturing in June 2033, the state’s most frequently traded securities, changed hands Nov. 21 at yields as high as 5.42 percent, Bloomberg data show. The debt’s spread to Treasuries was about 0.3 percentage point more than the average for the past five months.

If history’s any guide, the court decision will keep inflating the state’s relative borrowing costs. In July, Illinois yields surged after a separate court ruling signaled the 2013 pension fix might be in jeopardy. The law would save an estimated $145 billion over 30 years by reducing cost-of-living adjustments and raising the retirement age.

The state is appealing the circuit court’s decision to the Supreme Court.

S&P Threatens Illinois With Another Credit Downgrade In Wake of Pension Reform Uncertainty

In what has become an annual tradition, ratings agency S&P has threatened to further downgrade Illinois’ credit rating, whose bonds already carry among the lowest ratings in the country.

The main factor, according to S&P, was the status of the state’s pension reform law, which sits in legal limbo until a court decides its constitutionality.

From Reuters:

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services on Wednesday warned that Illinois’ already low credit rating could sink further if the state is unable to implement reforms to curb its big unfunded pension liability and balance its budget.

The credit rating agency revised the outlook on Illinois’ A-minus credit rating to negative from developing, citing a recent state supreme court ruling that could derail a new pension reform law and the state’s structurally imbalanced state budget.

“If the pension reform is declared unconstitutional or invalid, or implementation is delayed and there is a continued lack of consensus and action among policymakers on the structural budget gaps and payables outstanding, we believe there could be a profound and negative effect on Illinois’ budgetary performance and liquidity over the next two years and that this could lead to a downgrade,” S&P said in a statement.

It added that Illinois could achieve a stable outlook if the pension reform law Illinois enacted in December withstands constitutional challenges and the state takes “credible action” to balance its budget.

When a state’s credit rating is under review, ratings agencies assign it to one of three categories: positive, negative or developing. Positive indicates that the rating agency holds a positive outlook for the state’s credit rating and will likely upgrade it in due time.

Illinois’ outlook was previously developing. Now, it is negative, meaning S&P will likely downgrade the rating sooner than later.

S&P added, however, that Illinois could avoid a downgrade if the state’s pension reform law passed legal muster.