Let Them Sell Their Summer Homes?

Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Edward Krudy of Reuters reports, ‘Let them sell their summer homes': NYC pension dumps hedge funds:

New York City’s largest public pension is exiting all hedge fund investments in the latest sign that the $4 trillion public pension sector is losing patience with these often secretive portfolios at a time of poor performance and high fees.

The board of the New York City Employees Retirement System (NYCERS) voted to leave blue chip firms such as Brevan Howard and D.E. Shaw after their consultants said they can reach their targeted investment returns with less risky funds.

The move by the fund, which had $51.2 billion in assets as of Jan. 31, follows a similar actions by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), the nation’s largest public pension fund, and public pensions in Illinois.

“Hedges have underperformed, costing us millions,” New York City’s Public Advocate Letitia James told board members in prepared remarks. “Let them sell their summer homes and jets, and return those fees to their investors.”

The move is a blow to the $3 trillion hedge fund industry where managers like to have pensions as investors because they leave their money in for longer than individuals, sending a signal of stability to other investors.

Hedge fund returns have been lackluster for some time. The average fund lost about 1 percent last year when the stock market was flat, prompting institutional investors to leave.

Research firm eVestment said investors overall pulled $19.8 billion from hedge funds in January, marking the biggest monthly outflow since 2009.

Performance at some of the funds with which New York City invested was far worse. Luxor Capital Group, a long-time favorite with many pensions, lost an average 18.3 percent a year for the last two years.

New York city’s public pension system has five separate pension funds with individual governing structures. The system has total assets of $154 billion, with about $3 billion invested in hedge funds as of Jan. 31.

NYCERS had $1.7 billion invested in hedge funds at the end of the second quarter 2015, according to its financial report. That amounted to 2.8 percent of total assets and was the smallest portion of its ‘alternative investments’ portfolio, which included $8.1 billion in private equity.

Unaudited data from the city Comptroller’s office showed NYCERS’ hedge fund exposure was $1.4 billion as of Jan. 31.

Comptroller Scott Stringer, a trustee, said eliminating hedge funds would a help NYCERS construct a “responsible portfolio that meets our long-term investment objectives”.

NYCERS paid nearly $40 million in fees to hedge funds during its 2015 financial year, while its hedge fund portfolio returned 3.89 percent over the year, according to its financial report.

“Hedge funds are charging exorbitant fees for high-risk and opaque investments,” said James.

Public pensions started to invest heavily in hedge funds after the financial crisis in 2008-2009 to diversify their assets. A CEM Benchmarking survey of public pensions with a total of $2.4 trillion in assets found 5.2 percent of assets were invested in hedge funds in 2014, compared to 1 percent a decade earlier.

Martin Braun of Bloomberg also reports, NYC Pension Votes to Scrap $1.5 Billion Hedge Fund Portfolio:

New York City’s pension for civil employees voted to exit its $1.5 billion portfolio of hedge funds and shift the money to other assets, deciding that the loosely regulated investment pools didn’t perform well enough to justify the high fees.

The action Thursday by the trustees of the $51 billion Employees Retirement System, known as NYCERS, may signal a growing willingness among public pensions to pull their money from the investment vehicles, whose highly paid managers have become a political lightning rod and have frequently failed to outperform. In September 2014, California’s Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension, divested its $4 billion portfolio saying it cost too much and was too small to affect its overall returns.

NYCERS invested with hedge funds “with the belief that these would add value to the performance – both by increased returns and decreasing risk by providing downside protection,” New York City Public Advocate Tish James said in a statement. “I have seen little evidence of either.”

The New York fund’s decision will remove assets from firms including D.E. Shaw & Co., Brevan Howard Asset Management, and Perry Capital. Last year, NYCERS’s hedge fund portfolio lost 1.88 percent, lagging both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Three-year returns were 2.83 percent.

Todd Fogarty, a spokesman for D.E. Shaw, Max Hilton, a spokesman for Brevan Howard and Mike Geller, a spokesman for Perry Capital, didn’t immediately return e-mails and phone calls seeking comment.

Hedge funds eked out returns of about 0.6 percent in 2015, when the S&P 500 slipped 0.7 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the first time the funds had outperformed the index since 2008 as share prices rallied.

NYCERS’s hedge fund investments were subject to intense political scrutiny. Last year, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio referred to funds that bought Puerto Rico’s bonds as ”predators” because they demanded cuts in spending and services to ensure they’re paid in full. Two of NYCERS hedge fund managers held some of Puerto Rico’s $70 billion debt. Hedge fund managers have also come under fire for supporting charter schools, which are privately run but funded with taxpayer money.

Hedge funds still manage money for New York City’s pensions for firefighters and police officers. The city’s teachers’ and education administrators don’t invest with hedge funds.

Reading these articles just reinforces my thinking that it’s a requiem for hedge funds in the sense that institutional investors are increasingly frustrated of paying big fees for lousy performance which tracks or underperforms stocks (it’s all beta, where’s the alpha??).

I’ve long argued that U.S. public pensions should have followed CalPERS and nuked their hedge fund programs. They have no business whatsoever investing in hedge funds as they lack the internal expertise to understand the risks of these investments and end up listening to their useless investment consultants that shove them in the hottest brand name hedge funds they should be avoiding.

How many U.S. public pensions invested with Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square at the wrong time and are now stuck praying shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) are somehow going to magically recover to hit new record highs (keep dreaming, if lucky shares will bounce from these levels but the downtrend is far from over. The only good news for Valeant is it’s everyone’s favorite whipping boy and Bill Miller thinks it can double from these levels. Others think it’s going to zero.).

And it’s not just Pershing Square that’s experiencing difficulties. Lone Pine Capital’s Lone Cypress fund lost 8 percent during the first quarter as bets on Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Energy Transfer/Williams Companies tumbled. A few well-known activist hedge funds got clobbered investing in SandRidge Energy. Extreme volatility in Q1 hit premiere hedge funds like Citadel, Millennium, Blackstone’s Senfina. Even Ray Dalio’s Pure Alpha fund is down almost 7% so far this year, which goes to show you how tough it is out there.

In fact, in early April, Zero Hedge published a list of the best and worst hedge funds so far this year noting “the bulk of the marquee names continue to substantially underperfom the broader market, with Tiger, Pershing Square, Glenview and Trian standing out” (click on image):

Many institutional investors are worried about the bonfire of the hedge funds. If these titans of finance are unable to cope with ultra low rates for years or the new negative normal, how are delusional U.S. public pensions, many of which are already doomed, going to deliver on their bogey of 6%, 7% or 8%?

Almost five years ago, I warned “what if 8% turns out to be 0%?” but nobody was paying attention, lapping up the nonsense Wall Street was feeding them on a big bad bond meltdown (I’m still waiting for it to happen).

Nowadays, everyone is accustomed to ZIRP and NIRP but pension fund fiduciaries should think long and hard of what this means for their alternative investments. If you’re paying 2 & 20 in a deflationary world to any hedge fund or even private equity fund, you’re nuts! Period.

I’ve long argued that hedge fund fees need to come down significantly and I openly questioned why pension funds and sovereign wealth funds pay management fees to a hedge fund or private equity fund managing multi-billions.

It’s one thing to give a startup hedge fund a management fee to get up and running but once they are performing well and gathering billions, why keep paying them any management fee? Let them live and die by their performance alone (Do the math: If Bridgewater manages roughly $150 billion and collects a 2% or even 1.5% management fee no matter how well it performs, that is a huge chunk of change for radical transparency nonsense!).

“But everybody is invested with Bridgewater, it’s a no-brainer!” Really? I think a lot of pension fund managers need to start grilling their hedge fund managers instead of falling in love with them and regretting it later on. If you’re paying huge fees to a brand name hedge fund which is down 6%,8%,10%  or more in one quarter and you’re not sure why, you’re in big trouble.

What else? I also think it’s high time to start thinking outside the box and maybe start investing with smaller hedge funds that have much better alignment of interests. Earlier this week, we learned former Paulson & Co. partner Samantha Greenberg received a $130 million commitment in seed money from the alternative investment manager Ramius LLC for her new hedge fund, Margate Capital. I don’t know her but she obviously has the pedigree and it’s worth tracking her fund.

Sure, investing in small hedge funds carries its own risks and isn’t really scalable but I believe the time is right to put in place a program that seeds or invests in some startup hedge funds. Don’t blindly jump on the big brand name funds, a lot of them are nothing more than glorified asset gatherers charging alpha fees for leveraged beta.

Patience and Reality On Pensions?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Corina Ruhe of Bloomberg reports, ECB’s Knot Calls for Patience as Low Rates Raise Pension Concern:

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot called for “patience and reality” over ultra-loose monetary policy as concerns mount over the impact on pensions and savings.

“My proposal is to keep the broad monetary policy in place and then, really, inflation will rise sooner or later,” Knot, who is also the president of the Dutch central bank, told lawmakers in The Hague on Wednesday. “But I can’t tell when that will be.”

Knot, who said he was “among the more critical members” of the Governing Council, addressed members of the Dutch parliament’s finance committee after an invitation to discuss risks related to the the ECB’s 1.74 trillion-euro ($1.98 trillion) asset-purchase program and negative rates. He said that while savings and pensions are hit by ultra-low interest rates, governments and home-loan borrowers benefit.

The ECB has come under attack from politicians, most notably in Germany, since it cut rates in March, added corporate debt to its bond-buying plan and announced a new long-term loan program for banks. The rising tension is exposing Europe’s divisions just as officials head to Washington for meetings of the Group of 20 and International Monetary Fund.

Pension Struggle

Dutch pension funds are struggling to meet their obligations, particularly on fixed-level payouts. Knot suggested that model is probably no longer appropriate and said the system should change to better handle volatility.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview published on Tuesday that monetary policy is causing “extraordinary problems” for the nation’s banks and for retirement planning. He said last week that ECB President Mario Draghi should share the blame for the rise of populist political groups.

G-20 officials will probably discuss the impact of monetary policy and whether some central banks are reaching their limit, a Canadian official told reporters on Tuesday, on condition of anonymity.

Even so, ECB policy makers say they must focus on their mandate of price stability, and can add more stimulus if needed. The euro-area inflation rate was minus 0.1 percent last month and hasn’t been at the goal of just under 2 percent in three years.

Knot said last month in the Dutch central bank’s annual report that the ECB is approaching the limits of its monetary policy, and that a further expansion of its asset-purchase program could give rise to legal and financial-stability concerns.

On Wednesday he said the central bank is still operating legally, though he would oppose any proposal to buy bank bonds, citing a conflict of interest with the ECB’s role as a banking regulator. He also said helicopter money, or the direct central-bank financing of fiscal stimulus, lies outside its mandate.

“Within the Governing Council there is a discussion about the effectiveness of the instruments,” he said. The ECB’s remit is broad and policy makers have a “high level of judgment.”

I’ve already covered Europe’s pension woes and think there are serious challenges ahead given that ultra low rates and negative rates are here to stay.

The main structural problem in Europe is persistent deflation. The latest data shows France and Spain are still stuck in deflationary territory as of March. Italian banks are teetering on collapse and Greece is getting ready to introduce new drastic cuts on supplementary pensions (on top of older ones) which will lead to more public sector strikes. And now Greece has banded with Portugal to lambast the EU.

In short, the Eurozone is still one huge mess which is why I remain short the euro and think it’s headed lower even if just like the yen, it rallied relative to the USD recently based on the Fed, financial flows and market positioning. Lots of shorts got killed in crowded trades but fundamentally, I would remain short the euro and yen (click on images):

Importantly, the clear and present danger is deflation, not inflation, and unless we see a material rise in inflation expectations in developed countries, there’s no reason to think the bond market has it wrong.

So when Klaas Knot calls for “patience and reality” on pensions and savings, he is underestimating just how patient pensioners and savers have to be to wait out what could prove to be a prolonged period of debt deflation in Europe.

 

Photo by  Paul Becker via Flickr CC License

A Revolutionary Retirement Plan?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

New York’s New School of Social Research recently put out a blog comment, Teresa Ghilarducci’s Revolutionary Retirement Plan:

Americans do not have enough saved for retirement. In 2013, 28 percent of families had no retirement savings at all. Among those who do have some savings in their retirement accounts, the median balance for families nearing retirement is only $12,000.

In addition, the number of employers offering their workers retirement savings plans at work is declining. Between 1999 and 2011, the availability of employer-sponsored retirement plans in the United States fell from 61 percent to 53 percent. When employers do offer plans, they are more likely to be defined contribution plans in the form of a 401(k) than a traditional pension. These plans come with high risk, high fees, and large penalties for early withdrawals, all of which erode workers’ total savings.

These savings and coverage rates foretell a coming retirement crisis in the United States. Without enough retirement income, 16 million retirees will live in poverty or at near-poverty levels by 2022.

To prevent seniors from experiencing deprivation in their golden years, Teresa Ghilarducci, director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis and professor of economics at The New School for Social Research, has proposed a simple yet radical solution. The Retirement Savings Plan (RSP) she co-authored with Blackstone President Tony James proposes to create Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRAs). The proposal would require employees and employers to contribute 3 percent of a worker’s salary to an individually owned GRA. Employees and employers would contribute 1.5 percent each, and savings would be managed by professional portfolio managers. By prohibiting early withdrawals, GRAs would ensure that savings could be invested in long-term investments, which earn higher rates of return than short-term 401(k) investments.

Under a 401(k) plan, retirement savings are paid out in a lump sum, and retirees must determine how much money they should be using each year, leaving people vulnerable to outliving their savings. Under GRAs, when workers retire, their savings are paid out in an annuity, a guaranteed monthly payment for the rest of their lives, so that they don’t need to worry about budgeting correctly or outliving their retirement funds.

The plan is deficit neutral and will not cost the government additional funds. Rather, the plan calls for redirecting current tax deductions to better support retirement savings for those who need it most.

“Our ‘do-it-yourself’ retirement system is a failed experiment that has left Americans at risk of experiencing downward mobility in their golden years,” says Ghilarducci. “The GRA proposal is a no-cost solution to ensure that millions of Americans can retire after a lifetime of work without the risk of falling into poverty.”

Other nations have adopted similar plans, including Britain and Australia. The plans have seen varying measure of success, and time will tell if this can sway public opinion here in the United States. Ghilarducci’s plan is a solution that can prevent the impending crisis.

First, let me agree with professor Ghilarducci, the United States of pension poverty is experiencing a massive retirement crisis, one that will impact aggregate demand for decades to come (people retiring in droves will spend less as when they retire in poverty).

Second, she’s absolutely right, the brutal truth on defined-contribution plans is they don’t work and leave millions of people vulnerable to the vagaries of public markets. Moreover, the great 401(k) experiment has failed and it’s high time Congress stops sucking up to Wall Street, nuking pensions and facilitating their mass looting, and addresses the ongoing retirement crisis with real long-term solutions.

Third, the demise of the Central States Pension Fund which I discussed earlier this week when I covered pensions and the Wall Street mob, should serve as a wake-up call to millions of Americans who naively think their workplace pensions are safe and managed properly.

Fourth, even traditional defined-benefit plans are at risk in the United States. The deflation tsunami will decimate all pensions, especially those that are chronically underfunded. Some states, like Michigan and Alaska, have given up on defined-benefit plans, closing them for “cheaper” defined-contribution plans that aren’t backed by taxpayers (a dumb move that will ensure more pension poverty in these states).

So, I agree with Teresa Ghilarducci, there is a big problem but I fundamentally disagree with her solution to America’s retirement crisis which she proposes in a paper she co-authored with Blackstone’s Tony James.

You can read my thoughts here but basically any solution which is being peddled by Blackstone will benefit mostly Wall Street, not Main Street, ensuring the quiet screwing of America continues (and if you want the truth, even Fidelity slapped Blackstone this week, pulling out of its fund of hedge funds mutual fund, forcing its shutdown).

More specifically, I take issue with claims that this revolutionary retirement plan is “deficit neutral”. Really? So people are going to be investing in products that are mostly based on the whims and fancies of public markets and when they retire, they will convert their savings into annuities which will lock them into ultra low rates for years? And this is deficit neutral? All this will do is ensure more pension poverty and higher social welfare costs down the road (raising the debt and deficit).

I think Tony James and Teresa Ghilarducci need to study Canada’s Top Ten pensions more closely to understand the benefits of large, well-governed defined-benefit pensions.

What is my solution to America’s great retirement crisis? I discussed my ideas in an older comment on Teamsters’ pension fund:

Let be clear here, I don’t like multiemployer pension plans because they are poorly governed which is why many risk insolvency unless comprehensive reforms are implemented. But the problem here is much bigger than multiemployer plans. U.S. retirement policy needs a drastic overhaul to properly cover all Americans, most of which have little or no savings whatsoever.

I’ve shared some of my thoughts on what needs to be done when I examined whether Social Security is on the fritz:

…politics aside, I’m definitely not for privatizing Social Security to offer individuals savings accounts. The United States of pension poverty has to face up to the brutal reality of defined-contribution plans, they simply don’t work. Instead, U.S. policymakers need to understand the benefits of defined-benefit plans and get on to enhancing Social Security for all Americans.

One model Social Security can follow is that of the Canada Pension Plan whose assets are managed by the CPPIB. Of course, to do this properly, you need to get the governance right and have the assets managed at arms-length from the federal government. And the big problem with U.S. public pensions is they’re incapable of getting the governance right.

So let the academics and actuaries debate on whether the assumptions underlying Social Security are right or wrong. I think a much bigger debate is how are they going to revamp Social Security to bolster the retirement security of millions of Americans. That’s the real challenge that lies ahead.

Yes folks, it’s high time the United States goes Dutch on pensions and follows the Canadian model of pension governance as well as implements a shared risk pension model to ensure the sustainability of defined-benefit plans.

A truly revolutionary retirement plan would enhance Social Security and have it managed by one or several large, well-governed public pension funds backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. 

If U.S. policymakers stay the course, they will have a much bigger problem down the road. Already, massive inequality is wiping out the middle class and as thousands retire with little or no savings, it will only ensure that once deflation comes to America, it will be here for a very long time. And this means rates will stay low for years (never mind what Jamie Dimon states publicly, privately he’s petrified of this deflation scenario).

 

Photo by Roland O’Daniel via Flickr CC License

CPPIB Goes on a Massive Agri Hunt?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Jesse Riseborough and Javier Blas of Bloomberg News report, Glencore Plc sells $2.5 billion stake in agriculture business to CPPIB:

Canada’s largest pension fund agreed to pay US$2.5 billion for a minority stake in Glencore Plc’s agriculture unit as the commodity trader and miner works to reduce its debt burden.

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board will acquire a 40 per cent stake in the division which handles wheat, corn, barley, biofuels, cotton and sugar, according to a statement on Wednesday. The deal values the entire business at US$6.25 billion, below a US$10.5 billion valuation from Citigroup Inc. in September last year.

The price “was the low end of our valuation range, but it is not necessarily a disappointment,” said Ben Davis, an analyst at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London who advises holding the shares. “Cash through the door remains key for Glencore.”

The sale is part of a debt-cutting program Glencore Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg unveiled last year in a move to mitigate concern about the company’s capacity to pay down US$30 billion of debt as commodity prices tumbled. Canada Pension fended off other bidders that included Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and the state-owned Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co.

Stock Retreats

Glencore shares slipped 1.8 per cent to 139.30 pence by 11:08 a.m. in London. The company’s 588 million euros of notes maturing in April 2021 rose 1.8 cents on the euro to 93 cents, the highest since September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The price “is lower than market expectations based on discussions with investors,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Eugene King, who has a hold rating on the stock, wrote in a note to clients. The cash will help lower debt, but it will have minimal impact on the critical net debt to Ebitda ratio assessed by ratings agencies, he said.

Glencore has an option to sell as much as 20 per cent more in the business. Both Glencore and CPPIB can call for an initial public offering after eight years from the deal closing, expected to be in the second half of this year.

Food Trading

Glencore became a major agriculture player when it agreed to buy Canadian grain handler Viterra Inc. for $6.1 billion in 2012. With global network of more than 200 storage facilities and 23 ports, the company buys products from farmers, processors and other suppliers and sells to customers including local importers and government agencies.

The unit has gross assets of US$10.2 billion and generated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of US$734 million last year.

As the commodity collapse intensified in 2015, Glencore fought to reduce its debt burden, which totalled US$25.9 billion at the end of last year, by scrapping its dividend, closed mines and sold US$2.5 billion of new shares. Last month, the company pledged to cut net debt to as low as US$17 billion and raise as much as US$5 billion from selling assets.

“CPPIB have a proven track record in the sector and share our vision for the future growth of the business through value-creating organic and inorganic growth opportunities,” Glasenberg said in the statement.

Ag Deals

The transaction caps three years of intense deal making in the agriculture industry. Last year, Mitsubishi Corp. paid just over US$1 billion for a 20 per cent stake in food trader Olam International Ltd. Marubeni Corp., one of Japan’s top-five trading houses, bought U.S. grain merchant Gavilon Holdings LLC for US$2.7 billion plus debt in 2013.

Cofco Corp., China’s largest food company, spent more than US$4 billion over two years to build a global grain trader. It acquired the grains and oilseeds unit of Noble Group Ltd. and a majority stake in Dutch trader Nidera BV.

Glencore’s agriculture business “is now well-placed to take advantage of the significant opportunities that are expected to emerge across the sector in the coming years,” Mark Jenkins, senior managing director and global head of private investments at CPPIB, said in the statement. Agriculture is an “excellent fit” for a long term investor, he said.

Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG were joint financial advisers to Glencore. CPPIB was advised by Deutsche Bank AG.

Peter Grauer, chairman of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, is a senior independent non-executive director at Glencore.

Ian McGugen of the Globe and Mail also reports, CPPIB to acquire stake in Glencore agriculture unit in $2.5-billion deal:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is buying a 40-per-cent stake in the agricultural trading unit of Glencore PLC for what appears to be an attractive price.

The $2.5-billion (U.S.) price tag on the deal implies that the entire Glencore Agricultural Products business has an equity value of $6.25-billion, which is lower than many observers had expected. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, for instance, had estimated the unit’s enterprise value (including $600-million of debt) at $7.5-billion.

CPPIB is paying a price that is equivalent to 7.5 times the unit’s estimated earnings for the next year before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to the RBC analysts. That is in line with, or slightly lower, than the valuation on publicly listed agricultural traders such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. or Bunge Ltd., which are trading at enterprise values between 7 and 9 times EBITDA.

CPPIB stands to do well if there’s a rebound in agricultural trading, the massive but shadowy business that oversees the sales, processing and transportation of huge amounts of staples ranging from wheat and soybeans to cotton and sugar.

The global business is dominated by the so-called ABCD group of companies, composed of Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfuss. The big food traders regularly produce large profits but the past year has been disappointing for them, as bumper crops and low volatility have dragged down revenues and profits. Both Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge have seen their share prices cut by a third.

Glencore made a major foray into agricultural trading in 2012, when it paid $6-billion for Viterra, the Canadian grain handler. However, Glencore Agri, as it’s now known, saw operating profits almost halved last year, to $524-million.

Still, the company is confident of the business’s long term potential. Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of the giant miner-cum trader, made it clear in Glencore’s recent conference call that he wanted to sell only a minority stake in the business, and was seeking a partner or partners with the financial muscle to expand the business, particularly in regions where Glencore’s current operations are lacking. That fits in well with CPPIB’s stated interest in investing more in agriculture.

Analysts believe Glencore Agri would like to add acquisitions in Brazil and the United States. The deal announced Wednesday leaves a door open for Glencore to sell a further 20-per-cent stake in the unit, which could allow it to bring in yet another cash-rich partner.

It also allows either Glencore or CPPIB to call for an initial public offering of Glencore Agri after eight years. If valuations have improved by then, and the business has expanded, such an IPO could offer an attractive payback on the amount that CPPIB is paying today.

You can read CPPIB’s media release here. This is a great deal for CPPIB and I fully expect it to snap up another 20% in Glencore Agricultural Products which it has a right to do under the terms of the deal.

So why did CPPIB buy a big stake in Glencore’s agribusiness? Because it’s a very smart move for a mega pension fund with a very long investment horizon. Mark Wiseman and Mark Jenkins are scouring the globe to find attractively priced investment opportunities where they can invest a significant stake directly and when the bankers presented Glencore Agricultural Products, they wisely pounced on that deal.

Notice a pattern here? Last June, CPPIB bought a huge stake in GE’s lending arm, Antares Capital. That was its biggest deal to date — $12 billion USD — and it was backed up by $3.85 billion of the pension fund’s own money. This year, it is acquiring a 40% stake in Glencore’s agribusiness for $2.5 billion. And because of its size, it can do these massive deals on its own, a big advantage in these markets.

Also notice CPPIB is not worrying about hedge funds. That game is over, it’s for losers. Nope, CPPIB is using its comparative advantages — which include structural advantages such as a long investment horizon, scale and certainty of assets and developed advantages such as internal expertise, expert partners and a total portfolio approach — to invest massive amounts directly in very profitable businesses which offer stable cash flows over the long-run.

I’m being a little facetious here as I know CPPIB invests in a few large well-known hedge funds (you can view a list of its external hedge fund managers here) but the point I’m trying to make is the strategic focus isn’t on hedge funds, it’s on making large direct acquisitions of profitable business units of private or public companies that offer stable cash flows over the long run.

As far as Glencore, it’s shedding assets fast but it’s still reeling as there’s no end in sight to the deflation suspercycle which has pummeled commodities and leveraged commodity traders (like Glencore; see my comment on the secret club that runs the world).

The problem with Glencore is that it’s run by a bunch of cowboy commodity traders. It has some of the best commodity traders in the world but it’s focus is on short-term profits, not long-term growth (never mind what its CEO says publicly).

This is where CPPIB enters the picture. The conversation probably went something like this: “Boys, you blew your brains out taking highly leveraged commodity positions and now you’re on life support and need to shed assets to shore up your balance sheet. Let’s strike a deal” (again, I’m being facetious but with Glencore on the ropes, CPPIB got a great deal here).

And unlike Glencore, CPPIB has a long investment horizon, very deep pockets, and can sit and wait out this global stagnation cycle. No matter what happens, people still need to eat and agribusiness isn’t going to die.

Now, for individual investors, you might see this news release and think, “hey if CPPIB is buying part of Glencore’s agribusiness, it’s a good time to buy shares of agricultural stocks like Agrium (AGU), Mosaic (MOS) or Potash (POT).”

Why not? They’ve been hit hard and offer nice dividends too and now may be the time to buy and hold them for a very long time. Maybe but the problem is individual investors don’t have the staying power of a CPPIB to wait out a cycle which can last a very long time (what if global deflation takes hold?) and they could experience serious losses waiting for the cycle to turn (I continue to recommend steering clear of commodity, energy and emerging markets stocks).

It’s also worth remembering that CPPIB invests billions in both public and private markets which individual investors don’t have access to.

This is the reason why I want our politicians to get on with enhancing the CPP once and for all. It will allow Canadians to have their retirement nest egg managed by professional pension fund managers who can invest in top hedge funds and private equity funds but who can also make large direct investments in real estate, infrastructure, timberland and farmland.

In another deal that I forgot to mention, Brookfield Infrastructure Consortium to Acquire Assets of Asciano Limited, CPPIB, bcIMC and Singapore’s GIC were all part of the acquisition of Asciano, an Australian infrastructure company that focuses on transport including ports and rail assets, mostly through Patrick and Pacific National. The company provides details of this deal on its website:

On 15 March 2016 Asciano announced that it had entered into binding documentation with the “Brookfield Consortium” (Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (and certain of its affiliates) GIC Private Limited (and certain of its affiliates) and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation) and the “Qube Consortium” (Qube Holdings Limited, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Global Infrastructure Management, LLC (on behalf of itself and its managed funds and clients) and CIC Capital Corporation) in relation to the Joint Consortium Scheme including an implementation deed (Scheme Implementation Deed) and sale agreements in relation to Patrick’s container terminal business (Ports) and the Bulk & Automotive Port Services business (together BAPS).

Under the Scheme Implementation Deed, it is proposed that a vehicle (BidCo) owned directly or indirectly by CPPIB, GIP, CIC Capital, GIC and bcIMC (Rail Consortium), will acquire 100% of the issued capital of Asciano at $9.15 cash per Asciano share (reduced by the cash value of any permitted special dividend) (Scheme Consideration). The $9.15 Scheme Consideration represents the $9.28 per share announced on 23 February 2016, reduced by the amount of the interim dividend of $0.13 per share declared by Asciano on 24 February 2016 which is payable on 24 March 2016. The combined value of the $9.15 Scheme Consideration and the $0.13 interim dividend per Asciano share implies an enterprise value of approximately $12.0 billion.

The Asciano Board has considered the Joint Consortium Scheme in the context of the previously announced Qube Consortium proposal and unanimously recommends that Asciano shareholders vote in favor of the Joint Consortium Scheme in respect of all of their Asciano shares, subject to:

  • Asciano not receiving a superior proposal; and
  • an independent expert opining that the Joint Consortium Scheme is in the best interests of Asciano shareholders.

For further information please click through to the Takeover Proposal section of the website.

This is another great deal which positions bcIMC and CPPIB well for long-term global growth.

 

Photo by Andrew Seaman via Flickr CC License

A Requiem For Hedge Funds?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Timothy W. Martin and Rob Copeland of the Wall Street Journal report, Investors Pull Cash From Hedge Funds as Returns Lag Market:

Marc Levine, chairman of the $16 billion Illinois State Board of Investment, had a provocative question this month during a board meeting about hedge funds.

“Why do I need you?” Mr. Levine asked. A lot of big investors are asking the same question.

Pension funds, insurers and university endowments helped pump up hedge funds to a record $3 trillion in assets over the last decade. But with results falling behind a more traditional mix of stocks and bonds for six straight years and the high-fee structure now politically sensitive in some states due to uneven results, many of them are pulling back.

From New Mexico to New York, big investors are dramatically reducing their commitments and opting for cheaper imitations. Investors globally asked for more money back from hedge funds than they contributed in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to HFR Inc.—the first net quarterly withdrawal in four years. They pulled an additional $15.3 billion in this year’s first two months, according to eVestment.

The exodus will soon include the Illinois fund overseen by Mr. Levine. Two days after he questioned whether hedge funds were necessary, the board that oversees investments for about 64,000 public employees agreed to yank $1 billion from them in favor of bigger bets on private-equity and low-cost stock funds. One of the investments that Illinois exited from, Mr. Levine said, includes exposure to hedge fund Pershing Square Capital. The New York fund was down more than 20% through last week largely because of a losing bet on drug maker Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.

A Pershing Square spokesman declined to comment on the Illinois exit or performance.

Plenty of big institutions are still keeping money in hedge funds, as managers promise protection from an economic downturn. But longtime investors are increasingly frustrated about losses that intensified when markets turned more volatile over the last year.

American International Group Inc. said last month it would cut the $11 billion it had earmarked for hedge funds in half. Citing poor performance by those investments, the insurer said it would reallocate the money to more straight-forward bonds and commercial mortgages managed internally instead.

Others are retreating because some of the investment strategies once available only at hedge funds can now be purchased at a fraction of the cost from other asset managers. These products, coined “liquid alternatives” or “multi-asset,” can make bets on low volatility or the direction of interest rates without using as much leverage, or borrowed money, to supercharge returns.

Hedge funds typically charge higher fees than other money managers, historically an annual 2% of assets under management and 20% of profits. Some new competitors say they offer similar techniques for less than 1% of assets and a zero cut of any profits.

Northern Trust Corp. , for example, charges a management fee of less than 1% for a new “engineered equity” product that it says is similar in approach to a hedge fund. It uses models—instead of traders—to bundle together stocks that limit volatility or market risk, said Mike Hunstad, head of quantitative research for the Chicago-based firm.

The proliferation of lower-price alternatives is one reason the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund decided last month to end its $500 million hedge-fund program.

The commitment was expensive, said Dhvani Shah, the plan’s chief investment officer.

“So do I really want to scale up?” she said. “The answer is no.”

Overall, big investors pulled an additional $19.75 billion out of hedge funds in January, according to eVestment. That was the largest outflow for the year’s first month since 2009. Clients added $4.4 billion in February, but that was well below the $22.6 billion average for that month from 2010 to 2015, eVestment said.

It is too soon to know if those dismal showings will persist. Plenty of big investors still have huge sums committed to the industry.

Endowments and foundations, for example, cut their investments in hedge funds last year for the first time since Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service started tracking the data in 2001. Yet the asset class still accounted for 8.62% of their portfolios through Dec. 31, according to Wilshire.

Hedge-fund commitments as a percentage of U.S. public pension-plan portfolios have dropped from a peak of 2.31% in 2012 to 1.37% at the end of 2015, according to Wilshire.

One hedge-fund manager, TIG Advisors President Spiros Maliagros, said he believes investors will continue to seek out firms like his for the chance to do better than they would with mainstream investments. But he said the industry needs to be clearer that returns aim to diversify and ease the impact of market swings, not simply earn the highest payouts.

“It’s an expectation setting that I think we need to do a better job of,” he said.

The board that oversees Florida’s public pension money, the Florida State Board of Administration, has $3.9 billion invested in hedge funds and no plans to reduce the commitment.

“Our objectives have been met,” said Ash Williams, a former hedge-fund executive who now runs the Florida board.

Hedge-fund managers are seeking new ways to quiet any investor unease. Some are now pitching their own lower-cost products that bear little resemblance to the industry’s traditional offerings in price.

AQR Capital Management is among the large hedge-fund firms that now offer cheaper alternatives to their main funds. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest public pension, has kept $578 million invested with AQR in a lower-cost product that relies on automated bets even as it announced an exit from all hedge funds in 2014.

“It’s been priced as if it was all super special,” said AQR Managing Principal Clifford Asness. “There is stuff still out there sold as magic, but there are simpler, cheaper options that accomplish much of the same thing.”

There most definitely are simpler, cheaper options than hedge funds. A couple of weeks ago, I visited the offices of OpenMind Capital here in Montreal where Karl Gauvin and Paul Turcotte gave me a presentation on their approach analyzing the volatility of volatility to deliver much better risk-adjusted results than the CBOE Put Writing Index (see their dynamic option writing strategy).

To my surprise, they met a few potential clients here in Quebec which were reluctant to even try this strategy fearing any put writing strategy is doomed to fail if another 2008 happens. This just goes to show you how ignorant many investors are in terms of put writing strategies (click on image):

The numbers are all there on the CBOE’s website and I can guarantee you sophisticated hedge funds, pension funds and endowment funds are already implementing some form of a put writing strategy internally. I told Karl and Paul to “open their mind” (no pun or insult intended) and start approaching sophisticated investors outside Quebec. I also invited them to write a blog comment on their approach and strategies to educate less sophisticated investors on these strategies.

Anyways, back to a requiem for hedge funds. I recently discussed the bonfire of the hedge funds, going over why so many hedge funds closed shop in 2015 and how even top performers of last year — like Citadel, Millennium and Blackstone’s Senfina — are struggling so far this year.

Moreover, a bunch of the top-performing hedge funds stumbled in March and hedge fund momentum trades blew up in Q1, suffering their worst losses since 2009 (I personally think this is a great opportunity to load up on biotech shares which got slaughtered in Q1).

In short, ultra low and negative rates are making this a brutal environment for all hedge funds, especially larger ones unable to cope with huge market volatility. And that’s a structural change that isn’t going to go away, especially if global deflation sets in.

Frustrated, many institutional investors are looking to illiquid alternatives like real estate, private equity and infrastructure. But they carry illiquidity risk which can sting over a shorter investment horizon (even if pensions typically hold these assets over a long investment horizon).

Institutional investors that refuse to give up on hedge funds are tightening the screws. Chris Flood of the Financial Times reports, Sovereign wealth funds push for higher hedge fund standards:

The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds has signed an agreement with a large hedge fund association to push for better governance standards in the alternative investment industry.

The agreement is aimed at tackling issues in the hedge fund industry that have long concerned institutional investors, such as a lack of transparency around funds’ liquidity terms in stressed market conditions.

Many large investors, including sovereign wealth funds, were angered during the financial crisis when hedge funds imposed “gates” on their clients, preventing investors from pulling money out.

Alex Millar, head of sovereigns for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Invesco Asset Management, the US fund house, said: “Some hedge fund investments turned out to be less liquid than expected. There was a discrepancy between the risks taken and the risks that were anticipated.”

The poor performance of many hedge funds since the financial crisis and their high fees remain sources of frustration among institutional investors.

The head of sovereign funds at a US investment bank, who did not wish to be named, added that there was room to improve the alignment of interests between long-term investors and hedge fund managers.

“Structuring long-term mandates in exchange for fee discounts and agreeing the appropriate performance targets and incentives between hedge fund managers and long-term asset owners is challenging,” he said.

To improve the relationship between sovereign funds and their hedge fund clients, the IFSWF has established a “mutual observer” agreement with the Hedge Fund Standards Board, an association that works with 120 hedge fund managers that collectively manage $800bn in assets.

Adrian Orr, chief executive of the New Zealand Superfund and chairman of the IFSWF, which represents a third of the world’s 90 sovereign funds, said: “This relationship will help ensure that sovereign wealth funds have a voice in the hedge fund standard-setting process.”

Is there room to improve alignment of interests between hedge funds and large institutional investors? You better believe it and it’s about time these large sovereign wealth funds demand lower fees and better alignment of interests.

As far as large pension funds, most of them have given up on hedge funds but not the more sophisticated ones like the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. Last week, its CEO Ron Mock shared this with me when going over OTPP’s 2015 results:

“2015 was a scratch year for external hedge funds and internal absolute return trading activities. In a volatile market like 2015, you wouldn’t expect outperformance in these activities but they didn’t dent the total portfolio either.”

But Ron also told me Teachers’ takes a ‘total portfolio approach’ and external hedge funds and internal alpha trading activities figure in prominently in this approach.

I’m not too worried about Ontario Teachers’ when it comes to external hedge funds. Ron Mock has mentored Jonathan Hausman who is responsible for the Fund’s global hedge fund portfolio, as well as its internal global macro and systematic trading strategies. And Jonathan has an unbelievable team made up of people like Daniel MacDonald (best hedge fund portfolio manager I ever met) to help him oversee that portfolio during these tough times.

But other large pension funds have followed CalPERS and exited hedge funds altogether. Still, it’s far from being a lost cause for hedge funds. Lea Huhtala of the Financial Times reports, Finland’s state pension scheme to boost hedge fund assets:

Finland’s state pension scheme plans to invest another $500m in hedge funds this year despite persistent concerns over performance and high fees within the sector.

The move will be welcome news for the hedge fund industry, which has had to contend with a number of large investors either scrapping or scaling back their allocations.

Railpen, one of the UK’s largest pension schemes, finished a drawn-out reduction of its hedge funds assets last year, and now has just a 2 per cent exposure to hedge funds.

Europe’s second-largest public pension fund, PFZW, cut its entire €4.2bn hedge fund allocation last year.

VER, Finland’s state pension fund, intends to increase its allocations to hedge funds and other complex strategies to 6 per cent of its total $20bn portfolio. This is despite its existing hedge fund assets returning only 2.5 per cent in 2015 while its overall portfolio returned 4.9 per cent.

The pension fund currently allocates 3 per cent of its assets to hedge funds.

Timo Viherkenttä, VER’s chief executive, said: “We are aiming for a higher return than 2.5 per cent, but considering where the overall hedge fund market is now, the return was not too bad.”

A typical hedge fund charges investors a fixed management fee of 2 per cent and a further 20 per cent performance fee on returns the hedge fund manager generates.

According to figures released by State Street, the financial services provider, in February, nearly half of global pension funds plan to increase their exposure to single-strategy hedge funds over the next three years.

Nordic investors showed the most interest. Nearly 63 per cent of the Nordic pension funds surveyed planned to increase their single-manager hedge fund allocations in the next three years.

However, the survey showed investors have become more demanding. Ian Mills, a partner at LCP, the pension fund consultancy, said: “Investors are much more selective about the funds they are investing in. If you are going to pay 2 per cent per annum management fees and 20 per cent for performance, then you really want the best.”

Much more selective? They typically follow the advice of useless investment consultants that shove them in the hottest hedge funds they should be avoiding (don’t get me started on this nonsense).

When I read articles on how Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is down 25% so far this year, I cringe in horror thinking of how many public pensions are invested with this fund and are now praying Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) won’t turn out be the Canadian pharmaceutical equivalent of Nortel.

And like I said before, it’s easy to beat up on a high profile hedge fund honcho like Bill Ackman but he’s not alone. Fortune’s Nathan Vardi reports, Jeffrey Ubben’s ValueAct Capital, another big Valeant investor, has been sued by the U.S. government for violating pre-merger reporting requirements in connection with the hedge fund’s purchase of $2.5 billion of Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BHI) shares.

So, is it a requiem for hedge funds? Of course not. As long as large institutional investors search for ‘uncorrelated yield’, top hedge funds will continue to do well.

But the landscape for the hedge fund industry is irrevocably changing and in a deflationary world where ultra low rates and the new negative normal reign, institutional investors will be demanding much lower fees and much better alignment of interests from all their hedge funds.

As I warned all of you last October, the shakeout in the hedge fund industry is far from over. You can listen to all the excuses in the world, but I’m telling you, the deflation tsunami is coming, and this means ultra low or negative rates and huge volatility are here to stay. That alone will clobber many large hedge funds unable to cope with unprecedented volatility (makes you wonder which hedge funds are loading up on bonds).

 

Photo by thinkpanama via Flickr CC License

Pension Pulse: On Pensions and the Wall Street Mob?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Elliot Blair Smith of MarketWatch reports, How the Teamsters pension disappeared more quickly under Wall Street than the mob:

Real estate investments in Las Vegas casinos and hotels once threatened the integrity of a Teamsters pension fund that the federal government wrested away from corrupt trustees and organized crime after five years of legal battles.

A quarter-century later, the professionals who replaced them—Central States Pension Fund administrators; the Goldman Sachs & Co. and Northern Trust Global Advisors fiduciaries; and Department of Labor regulators—stood watch while the financial markets accomplished what the mob had failed to: which was to smash the fund’s long-term solvency with massive money-losing investments.

The debacle unfolding at the $16.1 billion Central States fund in Rosemont, Illinois, is a cautionary tale for all Americans dependent on their retirement savings. Unable to reverse a decades-long outflow of benefits payments over pension contributions, the professional money managers placed big bets on stocks and non-traditional investments between 2005 and 2008, with catastrophic consequences.

When the experiment blew up, rather than exhume the devastated portfolio to better understand the problem—and perhaps seek accountability—Central States administrators lobbied Congress to pass legislation giving them authority to cut retirement benefits by up to 50% after Treasury Department approval.

That’s close to Central States’ astonishing 42% drop in assets—and a loss of about $11.1 billion in seed capital—in just 15 months during 2008 and early 2009. And while the investment losses are not the source of the retirement plan’s unsustainability today, they accelerated the pension’s problems, and almost certainly made the benefits cuts deeper. The professionals made more money disappear in a shorter period of time than the mobsters ever dreamed of.

The Treasury Department under Special Master Kenneth Feinberg—who previously administered the 9/11 victims fund, and kept a rein on executive compensation at financial companies that received taxpayer assistance during the financial markets crisis—now has until May 7 to review an 8,000-page application by Central States to reduce the average pension benefit by 22% for more than 400,000 American workers, retirees, dependents and survivors.

In practice, some pensioners approaching retirement age—like 64-year-old Thomas Holmes of Avon, Indiana—expect to see about a 50% benefit cut after 31 years of hard work. And while Congress and the Central States administrators may have correctly identified and assessed one side of the problem—insufficient pension contributions to pay for benefits obligations—I’m suggesting that the fund’s investment portfolio also went off track, possibly beginning in 2005, or earlier.

That’s when federal tax authorities agreed to defer a statutory funding-deficiency notice for a decade, under an accord that required Central States to immediately begin repairing the pension’s finances. And it corresponds to increased allocations of stocks, particularly compared to most Taft-Hartley union plans, and also lower-rated bonds, including mortgage securities.

The 10-year IRS extension was scheduled to expire in 2015, coinciding with the nuclear solution of legislated benefits cuts that passed in December 2014.

This February, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) asked the Government Accountability Office to inform Congress on a series of concerns, among them:

  • Was the allocation of Central States investments consistent with comparable pension plans that have managed to remain solvent?
  • Has the Labor Department appropriately reviewed Central States’ decisions regarding changes in investment managers and strategies?
  • Has Labor maintained proper oversight of a special independent counsel whose appointment was a condition of the 1982 federal consent decree that broke the grip of organized crime at the fund?

“While Central States is not the only multiemployer pension fund that is facing severe funding issues,” Grassley wrote, “what is unique is the role the federal government has played in the operations of the fund since at least 1982.” The consent decree, he noted, “granted DOL considerable oversight authority as to the selection of independent fund managers as well as changes in investment strategies. DOL was further granted oversight of a court-appointed independent counsel.”

As we await the government watchdog agency’s response, I aim to fill in some gaps never addressed during the limited public debate over the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act in late 2014. That law laid the historic groundwork to cut benefits at pensions deemed to be in “critical and declining status.”

Central States is considered to be a multiemployer plan because thousands of independent trucking companies paid into a shared retirement fund for union drivers. One problem with multiemployer plans is that as some employers went bankrupt, or otherwise shirked their obligations, the remaining employers faced larger liabilities, and the pensioners fewer funds.

Today, only three of the plan’s 50 largest employers from 1980 still pay into the plan. And for each active employee, it has 5.2 retired or inactive participants.

Labor Department investigators fought a heroic battle against corrupt trustees and mob influence decades ago, culminating in the 1982 consent decree to “assure that the fund’s assets are managed for the sole benefit of the plan’s … beneficiaries,” according to a July 1985 report by the Government Accountability Office. At issue then were more than $518 million in real estate loans involving “apparent significant fiduciary violations and imprudent practices,” the GAO said.

Under the decree, a new fiduciary—originally, Morgan Stanley—was granted “exclusive responsibility and authority to 1) control and manage the fund’s assets; 2) appoint, replace, and remove investment managers; 3) allocate fund investment assets … and 4) monitor the performance of all investment managers,” the GAO said.

Union officials and company executives who served as pension trustees were removed from investment decision-making, but that did “not diminish” their obligation “to monitor the performance of the fund’s investment managers, or relieve (them) of any (other) fiduciary liability,” the GAO said.

Instead, trustees were to be consulted when investment objectives or policies changed. Any such changes also had to be reported to the secretary of Labor and the independent special counsel, and ultimately be approved in federal court.

Rudy Giuliani, then the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, followed up Labor’s efforts with a racketeering lawsuit in 1988 to smash the “devil’s pact” between organized crime and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters that allegedly included mail fraud, embezzlement and murder.

In “one of the most ambitious lawsuits in U.S. history,” federal prosecutors helped expel more than 500 union officers and members, according to the legal scholars James B. Jacobs and Dimitri Portnoi. Yet the consent decree also had the effect of replacing a strong union hand at the pension with multiple layers of administrative, managerial and regulatory oversight, none with particularly strong incentives to protect the fund before, during, or after the financial markets crisis.

The Central States administrator itself “is not responsible for the fund’s asset allocation and management of the fund’s investments,” Executive Director Tom Nyhan told me. Rather, investments were the exclusive province of the fiduciaries—Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust during the crisis—who were vetted and approved by the Labor Department, under the consent decree. In turn, while Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust were paid a fee based on assets under management, they didn’t invest the portfolio directly but hired managers to do so.

And Labor Department spokesman Michael Trupo conveyed a statement that described the government regulator as rubber stamp, at best.

“The department’s role under the consent decree is limited to reviewing proposed trustees and named fiduciaries before they are appointed; [and] reviewing proposed changes to the investment policy statement prior to implementation,” Trupo said. “While the department may object to actions proposed or discovered in its review, the court order gives the department no role in the day-to-day operation or investment decision-making of the fund.”

One more layer

Still, that left one more layer to help safeguard the retirement plan: the special independent counsel who reports to the federal court under the 2002 consent decree. During the financial crisis, the special counsel was former federal judge Frank McGarr, who died in January 2012 at age 90 “after a long struggle with Parkinson’s disease,” according to his obituary. He’d tendered his resignation four months earlier but temporarily continued to fulfill the assignment.

McGarr’s reports are among the few public records available about how the pension and its fiduciaries wrestled with their finances. And these records are invaluable. But McGarr produced only three quarterly reports during the final year of his service, and there were other untimely lapses even though presiding Judge Milton Shadur credited the reports as “thorough,” “detailed” and meticulous”—so much so they “obviated any need for further questioning or commentary.”

When I asked Central States Executive Director Nyhan how vigorous the special independent counsel was during the later years, when the retirement plan came under such great financial stress, he replied, “I take great offense to your veiled accusation” that McGarr “was unable to fulfill his responsibilities because he was of advanced age and suffered from Parkinson’s disease. … Judge McGarr may have been suffering from Parkinson’s, but he was in no way infirm.”

In contrast, the late judge’s daughter, Patricia DiMaria, took no exception. “He was in a wheelchair, but mentally he was very sharp,” she told me.

What remains of the Central States fund clawed its way back in recent years, in part after Goldman Sachs resigned the account. But the unrecovered losses ensured that the fund would start over at a much smaller base, and be unlikely to ever close the huge gap in its unfunded liabilities. Today, only pensioners are to be held accountable. And that is why the long, torturous tale of this tragic fund should resonate for all Americans. No social safety net is secure without reliable guardians.

In response to Sen. Grassley’s questions to the GAO, I offer the following:

Q: Was the allocation of Central States investments consistent with comparable pension plans that have managed to remain solvent?

A: No. Central States’ portfolio allocation was about two-thirds stocks, and less than one-third bonds entering the 2008 financial markets crisis. That is much more aggressive than the 48% median allocation to stocks by all Taft-Hartley Union plans at the beginning of 2008; and well above the median allocation of 59% of Taft-Hartley plans with assets of more than $2 billion.

What’s more, Central States’ investment loss of 29.81% in 2008 exceeded the 25.9% loss of its median peer, as well as the 20.46% median decline of all Taft-Hartley plans, according to data prepared for MarketWatch by Wilshire Associates. And Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust each underperformed their investment benchmarks for the fund in at least three out of four years, from 2006 through 2009.

“Even skilled and prudent asset managers incur losses, and no asset manager or process can guarantee gains during every period during every set of market conditions. They were particularly challenging market conditions during 2008,” Goldman Sachs spokesman Andrew Williams told me. He said that Goldman Sachs produced overall positive returns from August 1999 to July 2010.

Northern Trust spokesman John O’Connell said that “to protect client confidentiality, Northern Trust does not discuss specific clients or details about their programs, including investment performance.”

Q: Has the Labor Department appropriately reviewed Central States’ decisions regarding changes in investment managers and strategies?

A: Labor spokesman Trupo replies: “While the department may object to actions proposed or discovered in its review, the court gives the department no role in the day-to-day operation or investment decision-making of the fund.”

I’m not sure that answers if Labor provided appropriate oversight but it does suggest that the government regulator was not very proactive.

Trupo also provided me with the statement that: “The chief problem facing the Central States plan has been underfunding. Trucking deregulation in the 1980s exacerbated the funding problem because of the dramatic contraction of the industry, and the accelerated number of contributing employer bankruptcies that rapidly and substantially reduced the fund’s contribution base. At the same time, those bankruptcies substantially increased the fund’s legacy costs with no foreseeable way to make up those lost contributions. These converging factors, rather than poor investment strategy or performance, were primarily responsible for the severe underfunding that the fund is now experiencing.”

Q: Has Labor maintained proper oversight of a special independent counsel whose appointment was a condition of the 1982 federal consent decree?

A: Trupo: “The special counsel is chosen by the court, not the department.”

This suggests that Labor did not provide active oversight.

Finally, Central States’ benefits-slashing application to Treasury says “the Trustees have taken all reasonable measures to avoid insolvency of the plan.” The request elicited about 2,800 comments to Treasury officials, and 5,500 more to the fund. On their behalf, and all 400,000 pensioners, I’d like to be sure of the answer.

“We are not bonus-receiving bankers riding the coattails of bad decisions asking for a bailout,” says David Maxey, a retired Teamster in Indiana, who faces a monthly benefit cut of half to $1,151 a month. “We are over 400,000 blue-collar Americans asking for some fair consideration. When this is scheduled to go into effect, I will be 68 years old. Walking a freight dock or driving a truck are not likely.”

This excellent analysis is the first of a two-part series on the Central States Pension Fund. The second part will look more closely into why its investment performance suffered.

I’ve already covered the withering of Teamsters’ pension and ended it on this sobering note:

[…] it’s high time the United States of America goes Dutch on pensions and follows the Canadian model of pension governance. Now more than ever, the U.S. needs to enhance Social Security for all Americans and implement the governance model that has worked so well in Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden (and even improve on it).

I know, for Americans, these are all “socialist” countries with heavy government involvement and there is no way in hell the U.S. will ever tinker with Social Security to bolster it. Well, that’s too bad because take it from me, there is nothing socialist about providing solid public education, healthcare and pensions to your citizens. Good policies in all three pillars of democracy will bolster the American economy over the very long-run and lower debt and social welfare costs.

If U.S. policymakers stay the course, they will have a much bigger problem down the road. Already, massive inequality is wiping out the middle class. Companies are hoarding record cash levels — over $2 trillion in offshore banks — and the guys and gals on Wall Street are making off like bandits as profits hit $11.3 billion in the last six months.

Good times for everyone, right? Wrong! Capitalism cannot sustain massive inequality over a long period and while some think labor will rise again as the deflationary supercycle (supposedly) ends, I worry that things will get much worse before they get better.

In our conversation last week, Ron Mock, CEO of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, expressed the same concerns when he reviewed the plan’s 2015 results:

“I worry about aging demographics and people retiring with no pension. We do our part in ensuring a small subset of the population has their retirement needs addressed for the future.”

Unlike the Central State pension fund, Chicago’s pension plan or most U.S. public pensions which are doomed, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan are both enjoying a funded status that most pension plans can only dream of.

Let me go back to this pie chart that I posted when I went over Ontario Teachers’ 2015 results (click on image):

When people ask me why I’m such a stickler for large, well-governed defined-benefit plans, I point out charts like the one above to make my case. If you’re looking for a solution to the global retirement crisis, this is it, right there in that chart.

Yes, it’ true, Ontario Teachers and HOOPP do all sorts of sophisticated derivatives strategies to cleverly leverage up their portfolio, something which other pensions can’t do either because they lack the internal expertise or because laws prohibit them from leveraging up their portfolio.

But this isn’t the main factor which explains their funded status relative to most U.S. or even Canadian plans. The two main factors which explain the outperformance of Ontario Teachers’ and HOOPP are:

  1. Good governance that allows them to attract and retain qualified investment managers to manage assets internally at a fraction of the cost and
  2. A shared risk model that allows them to sit down with their stakeholders to implement conditional inflation protection (or other options) if the plan becomes underfunded.

And by the way, it’s not just Ontario Teachers and HOOPP that are fully funded in Canada. In Ontario, for example, other smaller plans which adopted a shared risk model like CAAT and OPTrust are also fully funded plans.

And even though I highlighted problems with some Canadian corporate plans getting hit by the loonie, the reality is most Canadian pension plans are in far better shape than their U.S. counterparts because they got the governance right and implemented a shared risk model.

By the way, following my last comment, I received an email from Bernard Dussault, Canada’s former Chief Actuary, stating the following:

The solvency basis for the valuation of defined benefit pension plan liabilities, which is dictated by accounting standards, portrays a distorted and inaccurate picture of most, if not all, DB plans financial status because it requires that the assumed long term yield on the plan fund be set equal to the current average market interest rates rather than the realistically higher projected yield on the fund.

Indeed, pension funds portfolios are normally much diversified among equities, infrastructures, real estate, etc., and generally comprise only a relatively small proportion of interest bearing vehicles such as bonds.

Therefore liabilities are, through the solvency valuation basis, unrealistically:

  • overestimated when interest rates are low, thereby unduly overestimating the plan’s debt;
  • underestimated when interest rates are high, thereby unduly overestimating the plan’s surplus.

In other words, DB plans financial status is actually not too bad on average and far from as bad as revealed by solvency valuations when interest rates are low. And it would be quite OK rather than not too bad if federal and provincial pension-related legislation would once and for all fully prohibit contributions holidays after a plan experiences a surplus.

I agree with Bernard on prohibiting contribution holidays once and for all and he makes an excellent point that the solvency basis for determining the valuation of a DB plans distorts the funded status of a plan, but bonds are still the measure of risk-free assets and all other assets are valued in relation to bonds (listen to Bill Gross explain it here).

Moreover, it all depends on where pension plans are currently valued. When I discuss Canadian DB plans that are 80% funded, I’m not as worried as when I discuss U.S. DB plans that are 60%, 50% or 40% funded.

In other words, the current funded status matters a lot. The starting point matters and as Ron Mock and Jim Keohane keep reminding me, all pensions are path dependent, which means they can’t sustain a big drop in their assets, especially when rates are at historic lows and deflation is knocking on our door. This forces public pensions to pile on risk after a huge drawdown in the hopes of regaining fully funded (or more likely, 80% funded status) and that’s the last thing they should be doing, especially if they are a mature plan paying out more in benefits than they receive in contributions.

Look at what happened to the Central States Pension Fund. It’s a textbook example of bad governance, gross mismanagement and terrible investment decisions. And it’s going to be workers and pensioners who will bear the brunt of years of gross negligence.

Of course, the sharks on Wall Street couldn’t care less. They are there to bleed these public pensions dry. They routinely gouge pensions on fees on structured products, hedge funds, private equity funds, currencies, commodities, derivatives, you name it. If they can collect a big fat fee or spread by”ripping their face off”, they’ll do it and they couldn’t care less about millions retiring in pension poverty.

And to add insult upon injury, you have a hedge fund legend and maestro central banker warning us of the looming catastrophe linked to entitlement spending run amok (never mind the facts or that productivity is grossly understated or that trillions are parked in offshore accounts). Nope, go after grandma and grandpa and screw workers by cutting their Social Security benefits.

All this to say while the movies love vilifying the mob, it’s the legalized mob on Wall Street that should concern you because while most Americans are going to retire in poverty, the financial parasites on Wall Street will always find ways to make off like bandits no matter how poorly pensions and 401(k)s are doing.

 

Photo by  Dirk Knight via Flickr CC License

Loonie Hurting Canadian Pension Plans?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Janet McFarland of the Globe and Mail reports, Volatile markets, stronger loonie hurt solvency of pension plans:

Canadian pension plans faced a sharp drop in solvency in the first quarter of 2016 as a result of roller-coaster equity markets and a stronger Canadian dollar.

A review of 449 client pension plans by consulting firm Aon Hewitt shows the median solvency of Canadian plans hit 83.1 per cent as of March 29, down 4.5 percentage points from 87.6 per cent at the end of December. Pension plans are 100-per-cent funded when they have investment assets equal to the estimated long-term cost of providing pensions for plan members.

The median funding level for pension plans was almost 91 per cent at the start of 2015, but slid throughout 2015 as interest rates declined, and faced even sharper declines in the early part of 2016. Aon Hewitt said the median funding level dipped below 80 per cent in mid-February, but recovered ground over the past month as a result of a rally in stocks and improving bond yields.

Nonetheless, the review found only 8 per cent of pension plans were fully funded by the end of the first quarter, down from 11.8 per cent at the end of December.

Will Da Silva, Aon’s national retirement practice leader, said companies need to “use all the levers they have in their risk-management toolkit” to deal with the volatility.

“For many plan sponsors, this volatility could translate into unwanted surprises in organizations’ cash positions, as well as their financial statements,” he said in a statement.

Companies do not have to immediately fund shortfalls in their pension plans, but must record the costs in their financial statements and must contribute cash to make up the gaps if they persist over time.

Aon Hewitt said many pension plans benefited last year from the drop in the Canadian dollar because they have large holdings of U.S. and foreign investments, which were worth more in Canadian-dollar terms. But the dollar has staged a comeback in 2016 from 69 cents (U.S.) in mid-January to 77 cents by late March. The result has lowered returns on non-Canadian investments.

Ian Struthers, a partner in Aon’s investment consulting practice, said companies have to take a long view on investing and manage their exposures. While gains on foreign holdings last year were erased by the stronger loonie in the first quarter of 2016, for example, he said companies that use smart hedging and other “derisking” strategies were able to mitigate that volatility.

Smart hedging and “derisking” strategies might help but I have good and bad news for all these Canadian companies worried about their pension plans.

The good news is the loonie is headed much lower. That little countertrend rally we saw in the first quarter in oil prices will fizzle as the U.S. dollar strengthens for the rest of the year, driving down commodity prices.

Let me take a little detour here and explain macro trends because it’s important you all get it right. While the media is reporting, Strong U.S. jobs report unlikely to sway cautious Fed, and everyone is bearish on the U.S. dollar thinking the Fed won’t raise rates this year, they’re missing a bigger problem.

The bigger problem is this, as the U.S. dollar weakens and other currencies strengthen, it disproportionately hurts economies that are heavily reliant on exports. And many of these economies in Asia and Europe are stuck in deflation, so they can’t afford tighter financial conditions  that come with a strengthening currency.

The exact same thing goes for Canada. As the loonie climbs relative to the U.S. dollar, financial conditions get tighter placing more pressure on a very fragile economy that is reeling from the sharp decline in energy prices. A rise in the currency acts like a interest rate hike and lowers inflation expectations (via lower import prices), bringing the threat of global deflation closer to home.

This is why in a recent comment on Canadian banks being in big trouble, I stated this:

I’ve long been short Canada and despite the recent pop in oil prices and the loonie, I haven’t changed my mind on that macro call. I fundamentally believe the worst is yet to come for Canada because my big picture outlook for global deflation hasn’t changed.

And global deflation spells big trouble for all banks, not just Canadian ones. In fact, have a look at the U.S. Financial Sector ETF (XLF) and you will notice it’s rising from its low in mid February but basically going nowhere as it’s still below its 200-day and 400 day moving average (click on image):

Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that while the U.S. economy remains on track, the Fed still intends to pursue only a gradual increase in interest rates, stating global uncertainty justifies a slower path of rate increases.

I’ve already written about the sea change going on at the Fed, so none of this surprises me. Moreover,  Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed bond king who runs DoubleLine Capital, said on Monday that an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve in April is “inconceivable,” given lower forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth.

What’s worrying Janet Yellen? In my opinion, global deflation coming to America. The Fed is desperately trying to talk down the U.S. dollar, especially now that a profits recession has already hit the U.S. economy, threatening future employment gains (click on image): 

The latest strategic analysis from the Levy Economics Institute, Destabilizing and Unstable Economy, reveals that the US economy remains fragile because of three persistent structural issues: weak demand for US exports, fiscal conservatism, and a four-decade trend in rising income inequality. It also faces risks from stagnation in the economies of the United States’ trading partners, appreciation of the dollar, and a contraction in asset prices.

So here you have the U.S. economy slowing at a time when China, Japan and Europe remain mired in deflation, and we think little old Canada is going to do well in this environment? Sure, the lower loonie can help manufacturing exports, but if you ask me, many Canadian economists, especially bank economists, are way too optimistic on Canada’s growth prospects going forward.

As far as Canadian banks, if you look at the BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Banks Index ETF (ZEB.TO), they too have performed better than their U.S. counterparts recently, basically bouncing up as oil prices rallied from their lows (click on image):

And when Canadian banks do well, the entire Canadian stock market does well (click on image):

But this countertrend rally won’t be sustained as global deflation becomes more entrenched and as I’ve repeatedly warned you, use any spike in oil prices to short the loonie and lighten your position in energy and commodity shares.

I think what happened in Canada at the start of the year was a classic rotation into energy and commodity shares by global asset allocators who thought the loonie was cheap and these shares will bounce, which they did.

Now, if you’re betting on a global recovery, you should continue buying Canadian banks, energy and commodity shares. If you think it’s going to fizzle out in the second half of the year, stay away or sell these shares. This is all part of a global RISK ON/ RISK OFF trade that dominates markets.

When it comes to shorting Canada, however, I prefer shorting the loonie than Canadian banks. If global deflation sets in, the new negative normal will hit all countries, including Canada and the United States, placing huge pressure on all banks to deliver the return on equity (ROE) targets of the past.

And in my comment on shifting the focus on enhancing the CPP, I stated this:

[…] once Canada’s real estate market implodes, I guarantee you Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be going negative and not waiting to see what happens with federal spending on infrastructure. He might even move rates to negative a lot sooner if oil prices keep declining or crash.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the loonie is a petro currency. Period. If global deflation becomes more entrenched, which remains my primary macro call, then oil prices are headed lower and will stay low for a very long time. And the lower oil prices will drag down the loonie, maybe not to 59 cents as some Australian economist claimed earlier this year, but easily to 66, 68 or 70 cents.

So, the good news for Canadian corporate pension plans is that the loonie won’t keep rising and it will likely fall significantly from these levels over the rest of the year (it will likely retest its lows).

What else? The U.S. dollar will likely rise during the rest of the year. In a recent comment of mine on markets defying central bankers, I stated the following:

If you think the recent plunge in Valeant’s shares was bad, wait till you see the plunge in many energy and commodity names after this countertrend rally fizzles (many of these stocks will retest their lows; just look at the recent action of Peabody Energy). It will be brutal and many institutional and retail investors will get slaughtered.

And the same goes for all these commodity and emerging market stocks and currencies. Their appreciation relative to the USD, just like that of the euro and yen, won’t last for long.

In fact, have a look at this chart of the EUR/USD (click on image):

Euro bulls will tell you it’s getting ready for a major breakout but I doubt it will go over its 400-day moving average and I think it’s a screaming short at these levels.

This morning after the U.S. jobs report, I updated that chart on the EUR/USD and asked a buddy of mine who trades currencies if he thinks it’s a screaming short (click on image):

He said this:

“I think the market is caught short the euro and they will have stops at 1.1525 so wait for those to get triggered, maybe get it as high as 1.17 and then short it. Fundamentally it’s a short but I think market positioning is the problem.”

It helps to have friends who trade currencies for a living because they provide you with insights above and beyond fundamentals.

But regardless of where the euro heads over the next few weeks, as it keeps rising above it’s 400-day moving average, I would be piling on short positions, waiting for a sharp decline. The fact remains Euroland is mired in deflation and it can’t sustain a rise in the euro.

And here is the bad news for Canadian corporate pensions and all global pensions. As the mighty greenback starts surging again, it will ease financial conditions in the rest of the world but it will mean lower commodity prices and more importantly, it will lower U.S. import prices and bring the prospect of deflation coming to America that much closer. This at a a time when the rest of the world is mired in deflation.

And the bad news for pensions? I’ve already stated it. Ultra low rates are here for years and the prospect of global deflation is why central banks are adopting the new negative normal. And low or negative rates mean more market volatility and higher pension deficits. If deflation sets in, it will decimate pensions.

Just look at U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declining after Friday’s supposedly great jobs report. The bond market is worried about something and isn’t buying the Koolaid story on the U.S. economy.

So there you have it, my thoughts on the big macro picture and how it’s going to impact Canadian corporate and public pensions.

Of course, if you ask me, we need real change to Canada’s retirement system. We should chuck corporate pensions altogether and enhance the CPP once and for all so companies can worry about their core business (not pensions) and Canadians can stop worrying about whether they’ll have enough money to retire on, especially if their company goes bust (remember what happened to Nortel’s pensioners and worse still, its disabled?).

On that note, I remind all you that I work hard to provide you with unbelievable insights on pensions and investments, bringing it all together with insights from top pension fund managers like Ron Mock or Jim Keohane, but also from any others including yours truly.

Please take the time to subscribe and donate to Pension Pulse on the right-hand side of the blog (at this link: http://pensionpulse.blogspot.ca/). I thank those of you who support my efforts and remind you that I am willing to discuss contract work and/or full time employment opportunities (send me an email at LKolivakis@gmail.com if you want to discuss employment opportunities).

 

Photo credit: “Canada blank map” by Lokal_Profil image cut to remove USA by Paul Robinson – Vector map BlankMap-USA-states-Canada-provinces.svg.Modified by Lokal_Profil. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons – http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_blank_map.svg#mediaviewer/File:Canada_blank_map.svg

Pension Pulse: Ontario Teachers’ Gains 13% in 2015

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Jacqueline Nelson of the Globe and Mail reports, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan posts 13% return in 2015:

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan’s 13-per-cent rate of return in 2015 was buoyed by growth in its private market assets, where investing conditions have grown increasingly challenging.

The pension plan, which supports 316,000 of the province’s teachers and retirees, earned $19.6-billion through all of its investments in a year peppered with deals – from toll roads to seniors’ housing.

“This was the year of the privates, whether it’s real estate, private equity or infrastructure,” Ron Mock, chief executive officer of Teachers, told a media briefing on Wednesday. He noted that just a few years ago, fixed income had been a similar bright spot for the portfolio.

Teachers’ private capital group posted a soaring 32.3-per-cent investment return in the 2015 calendar year. And infrastructure and real estate returned a collective 16 per cent in 2015. Each category exceeded the benchmark Teachers had set by a wide margin.

But the pension plan’s executives are now approaching these same sorts of assets with heightened vigilance.

“A lot of assets have seen unprecedented global competition for the time being. … We think prices are high, and there’s a risk the fund will not get compensated taking that risk going forward,” said chief investment officer Bjarne Graven Larsen, who joined the pension plan in February.

This attitude doesn’t mean the fund thinks asset prices are set to fall in the near future, Mr. Graven Larsen added, but indicates caution is required to ensure Teachers can add enough value to anything it buys to make up for the high prices those businesses and structures command.

Last year, Teachers completed a re-evaluation of its investment strategy with a special focus on how best to grow internationally. The review highlighted a need not only for outperforming benchmarks in different asset classes, but also for bringing those specialties together under a more unified strategy to boost total returns overall.

Teachers has created a new group called “portfolio construction” under Mr. Graven Larsen to look at possible risks across the global portfolio – from the implications of a British exit, or “Brexit,” from the European Union, to investment areas that should potentially be developed or receive more funding.

This effort to unify its asset classes comes as Teachers manages more capital than ever. The pension fund had $171.4-billion in assets under management, up from $154.5-billion in 2014.

The pension plan has steadily moved to oversee more of its investments, with 80 per cent of assets now managed internally by teams in Toronto, London and Hong Kong. Mr. Mock said these offices all performed well in 2015, and the pension plan was considering adding another base in South America.

The 2015 financial results included a 17.7-per-cent return in equities, with non-Canadian investments significantly outperforming those made in the country. The fund’s fixed-income portfolio, including bonds, had a one-year return of 5.9 per cent. Meanwhile, natural-resource investments were a dark spot, down by 1.3 per cent last year amid the commodity downturn.

Teachers ended last year 107-per-cent funded, with a surplus of $13.2-billion. That positions the plan to meet future pension liabilities over time, with money to spare.

With the ratio of active teachers to pensioners currently hovering at around 1.4 to one, the pension plan is paying out more in benefits than members are contributing. At the end of 2015, paid benefits reached $5.5-billion and new contributions stood at $3.3-billion.

Teachers has posted an annualized 10.3-per-cent rate of return since its founding as an independent organization in 1990. Since that time, pensions have been funded primarily through investment income. Only 21 per cent of assets have come from contributions from the province’s educators and government employer contributions in that time.

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan put out a press release, Ontario Teachers’ earns 13.0% return for 2015:

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (Ontario Teachers’) today announced a rate of return on investments of 13.0% for the year ended December 31, 2015, resulting in an increase in net assets to a record $171.4 billion from $154.5 billion at the end of 2014.

Investment earnings for the year were $19.6 billion, up from $16.3 billion in 2014. Measured against a consolidated investment benchmark of 10.1%, the plan’s excess return of 2.9 percentage points resulted in $4.2 billion in value added. Since the plan’s inception in 1990, total investment income has accounted for 79% of the funding of members’ pensions, with the other 21% coming from member and government contributions.

“We are pleased with our Toronto, London and Hong Kong teams’ performance this year,” said Ron Mock, President and Chief Executive Officer. “This, in combination with the plan sponsors’ 2008 adoption of condition inflation protection, which improved our investment risk tolerance, resulted in a successful year,” he said.

Bjarne Graven Larsen, who assumed the Chief Investment Officer role on February 1, credits the plan’s ongoing success to an evolving investment strategy with a global outlook. He noted: “Despite volatile market conditions, Ontario Teachers’ global, diversified portfolio produced strong investment returns.”

Ontario Teachers’ continues to show strong performance in pension services, according to two independent, annual studies. The plan’s Quality Service Index (QSI), which measures members’ service satisfaction, was 9.1 out of 10 in 2015, and the plan was ranked second for pension service in its peer group and internationally.

Funding position

The plan had a preliminary funding surplus of $13.2 billion at January 1, 2016, the third surplus in as many years. It was 107% funded at the start of the year, based on current contribution and benefit levels.

2015 investment return highlights by asset class

The value of the plan’s public and private equity investments totaled $77.5 billion at year-end, up from $68.9 billion at December 31, 2014. The investment return in the equities portfolio of 17.7% was ahead of the 14.7% benchmark.

Private Capital investments rose to $28.4 billion at year-end from $21.0 billion a year earlier. Private Capital’s investment return was 32.3%, compared to the 18.1% benchmark.

Fixed Income had $69.1 billion in assets at year-end, compared to $65.6 billion at December 31, 2014. The one-year return of 5.9% was in line with the benchmark return of 6.0%.

Natural Resources investments were $10.2 billion at year-end, compared to $11.9 billion at December 31, 2014. The one-year return of -1.3% was ahead of the benchmark return of – 6.1%.

Real assets, a group that consists of real estate and infrastructure, had total assets of $40.6 billion at year-end, compared to $34.7 billion a year earlier. The real estate portfolio, managed by the plan’s subsidiary Cadillac Fairview, totaled $24.9 billion in assets at year-end and returned 12.9%, exceeding the 8.0% benchmark. The infrastructure portfolio had $15.7 billion in assets at year-end, up from $12.6 billion a year earlier. Infrastructure’s investment return of 21.4%, compared to the 14.3% benchmark.

You should download and read OTPP’s 2015 Annual Report to gain better insights on the performance and operations at Teachers.

I had a chance to talk with Ontario Teachers’ CEO Ron Mock late Wednesday afternoon to go over the 2015 results. Ron had a very busy day but was gracious enough to call me back and I thank him for doing so.

Below, I summarize some of the points from our discussion:

  • I began by congratulating him on these stellar results. Teachers outperformed all its large Canadian peers, including the Caisse, OMERS, AIMCo, and HOOPP. It also outperformed the average Canadian pension which returned 5.4% in 2015 (keep in mind, a big part of Teachers’ relative outperformance comes from the clever use of leverage which others can’t use).
  • More importantly and more crucially, Teachers’ funded status improved to 107%, placing it just below HOOPP’s 122% super-funded status. This is why I keep referring to HOOPP and OTPP as the two best pension plans in Canada and the world.
  • The first thing that struck me from Teachers’ 2015 results was the unbelievable performance of Teachers’ Private Capital led by Jane Rowe. That group delivered 32.3% in 2015, trouncing its benchmark which gained 18.1% last year.
  • Ron called it the “year of the privates” as Private Equity, Real Estate and Infrastructure all performed well, handily beating their respective benchmarks (which aren’t that easy to beat). But he added: “We take a total portfolio approach. This year it was privates, three years ago, bonds kicked in for us.”
  • On Private Equity, Ron told me they’re focusing on “long-term value creation” which means good old fashion rolling-up-your sleeves PE, none of the financial engineering of the past where funds leveraged companies up to wazoo to bleed them dry as they pay themselves dividends. Teachers Private Capital has a long-term focus and a longer investment horizon than PE funds, giving it an advantage over its fund competitors.
  • In terms of currency hedging, Ron told me that Teachers doesn’t hedge currency risk, which helped with some investments, “but we had other investments in currencies that got hit” (probably in Brazil). So yes, FX gains added to our overall return but it wasn’t the primary factor.”
  • In terms of funds, I noted on my blog that Teachers sold stakes in global private equity funds in the secondary market. As I thought, this was to rejig the total portfolio to fund other investments like infrastructure. Ron confirmed this: “You got it, it’s about looking at the total portfolio and investing in the best opportunities.”
  • On the recent London City Airport consortium deal which I questioned on my blog, Ron had this to say: “We have deep expertise in airports. We can place a board quickly to monitor these investments and focus on value creation over a very long investment horizon. And our investment horizon for an asset like this isn’t ten years, it’s more like 20 to 30 years.”
  • On the Maple Financial scandal which I also covered on my blog, Ron shared this: “I can’t get into details as the investigation is still ongoing but we have pledged to repay dividends if the allegations are proven.” But he added: “It’s not a traditional operational screw-up like a hedge fund blowing up, it’s more complex, an interpretation of [German] tax law.” As far as whether Teachers took a writedown on this asset, Ron didn’t say yes or no but he said “it’s fully reflected in 2015’s results.”
  •  On Teachers’ massive external hedge fund portfolio, Ron said 2015 was a “scratch year” for external hedge funds and internal absolute return trading activities. “In a volatile market like 2015, you wouldn’t expect outperformance in these activities but they didn’t dent the total portfolio either.”
  • On Teachers’ 107% funded status, Ron shared a few interesting tidbits with me. First, the discount rate set by the Board currently stands at 4.7%, one of the lowest in the world for any public pension, reflecting the fact that Teachers’ is a mature plan paying out more in benefits than it receives in contributions and its members live a lot longer (bigger longevity risk attached to the plan).
  • Ron told me the decision of what to do with the surplus (like fully restore inflation protection) lies entirely with the stakeholders of the plan, ie. the Ontario Teachers’ Federation and the Ontario government. But he added: “They are very sophisticated and in the past, they didn’t spend all of it but saved some for a rainy day, understanding these are very difficult markets and the focus must always be on the plan’s sustainability.”
  • On that last point, Ron added this: “Our focus in on the long-term but we don’t lose sight on short-term trends either because we are very path dependent. Our short-term is ten years and we always gauge the risks of a serious drawdown to the total portfolio. The last thing you want is to be piling on risk when you have a big drawdown.” (this is why most US public pension funds are doomed).
  • I also commended Ron for taking leadership role in implementing gender diversification at Teachers. I noted that Jane Rowe and Barbara Zvan were two of the highest paid officers at Teachers in 2015 (see compensation table below). Ron told me this: “It’s important and I made a point to place Jennifer Brown, Rosemarie McClean and others in key positions. But beyond their gender, they are wickedly smart and highly ethical professionals who add value to our organization.
  • Lastly, a more philosophical question to a man who has experienced some harsh hedge fund lessons in the past and is now running one of the world’s best pension plans. I asked Ron if he’s happy and if he could have ever imagined being in the position he is right now. He told me: “I’m very happy, work with a great group of professionals, meet interesting people all over the world and I feel like there’s a social purpose to what we’re doing. I worry about aging demographics and people retiring with no pension. We do our part in ensuring a small subset of the population has their retirement needs addressed for the future.

That was a great way to end our conversation, one that should give many of you working at public pensions some food for thought in terms of why what you’re doing is a part of something much bigger and much more important than your paycheck and bonus.

Once again, please take the time to carefully read Ontario Teachers’ entire 2015 Annual Report. It is very well written and explains investments, operations, funded status and a lot more in great detail.

One thing I will bring up is executive compensation of senior officers (from page 30, click on image):

As you can see, Teachers’ senior officers enjoy some generous payouts, a bit higher than what other large Canadian pensions pay their senior officers.

But I caution you to keep two things in mind: Teachers’ four-year results are better than their large peers and people like Ron Mock, Barbara Zvan, Wayne Kozun and Jane Rowe have been there for a long time and they’re delivering outstanding results. This compensation is explained in great detail in the Annual Report and it’s in line with the results they produced.

Sure, Ontario’s hard working teachers might be looking at these hefty payouts and questioning whether they’re fair and need to be so excessive. I myself have done so on my blog on a few occasions but in the end, attractive compensation which is based primarily on long-term performance is part of good governance, and that’s why Ontario Teachers sets the bar and has delivered outstanding results, ensuring the sustainability of the plan for years to come.

We should be openly discussing compensation at Canada’s large pensions. I have no problem with an open, transparent discussion on compensation, but keep in mind the long-term results that come with this compensation. This money isn’t given to them for free, they have to beat tough benchmarks to earn that compensation, so don’t just look at compensation in a vacuum. Try to understand how it’s determined and why these individuals are being paid top dollar. It’s because they’re producing stellar long-term results, ensuring the long-term sustainability of the plan and lowering its cost for all stakeholders.

On that last point, there is one chart I really like in the Annual Report, one that exemplifies Teachers’ long-term performance (click on image):

When people ask me why I’m such a stickler for large, well-governed defined-benefit plans, I point out charts like the one above to make my case. If you’re looking for a solution to the global retirement crisis, this is it, right there in that chart.

 

Photo credit: “Canada blank map” by Lokal_Profil image cut to remove USA by Paul Robinson – Vector map BlankMap-USA-states-Canada-provinces.svg.Modified by Lokal_Profil. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons – http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_blank_map.svg#mediaviewer/File:Canada_blank_map.svg

Shifting the Focus on Enhancing the CPP?

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Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

Andy Blatchford of the Canadian Press reports, Next on the Finance Minister’s to do list: Get provinces to support a Canada Pension Plan expansion:

With his first budget behind him, rookie Finance Minister Bill Morneau seems comfortable in his new surroundings — he’s even quick to highlight the symbolism of the boardroom artwork at his department’s headquarters.

Morneau points to a series of framed pictures featuring etchings of $1 coins. The artist, he explains, flipped each of the loonies repeatedly to identify which might be considered the luckiest of the bunch.

That coin, now encased, also hangs from the wall.

“So, that’s the lucky loonie,” Morneau told The Canadian Press before a recent roundtable interview.

“We thought that was an appropriate piece of art for the Finance Department.”

Just days after tabling his maiden budget, good fortune seemed to be on the former Toronto businessman’s mind as he explained what his private-sector expertise brings to one of his next big tasks: enhancing the Canada Pension Plan.

One’s ability to retire in dignity is often driven “partially by luck,” said Morneau, who has advised Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne on pensions.

There’s a role for government when someone in a private, defined-contribution plan — and who hasn’t saved enough — happens to retire at a time when the stock market’s down, he continued.

The Liberals repeated their support for strengthening the CPP in last week’s budget, which noted the dangers of things like failing private-sector pension plans and the risk that healthier Canadians could outlive their savings.

Until last fall, Morneau was executive chairman of the human resources firm Morneau Shepell, a company that describes itself as Canada’s largest provider of pension-administration technology and services.

He said he understands the financial challenges seniors face and that any CPP enhancement should be fully funded by those who will actually use it to avoid an “intergenerational wealth transfer.”

Morneau said he hopes to eventually get some consensus on enhancing the CPP, a goal outlined in the Liberal government’s election platform. Doing so would require the support of seven of the 10 provinces representing two-thirds of the country’s population.

The provinces and territories are scheduled to reconvene in June to continue talks that began in December on the polarizing subject of CPP reform. The aim is to reach a collective decision by the end of the year.

But it’s still unclear how much support the Liberals will garner, even though the provinces agreed in December to continue discussing the subject.

Wynne, for one, supports CPP expansion and plans to proceed with mandatory payroll deductions starting Jan. 1, 2017, for the new Ontario Retirement Pension Plan. That plan essentially mirrors the CPP for anyone who doesn’t already have a workplace pension.

Other big provinces like Quebec and British Columbia remain unconvinced. Quebec already has a public pension plan and B.C. has expressed concerns about the country’s fragile economy.

Saskatchewan has opposed CPP enhancement over worries about the negative consequences of the oil-price slide on the provincial economy.

But Morneau said he remains “cautiously optimistic” about the next round of CPP talks — an issue he’s unwilling to leave up to a simple toss of a coin.

“The devil is in the details, but there’s a recognition of the challenge that we face and there’s a recognition that CPP’s been a very effective vehicle over the last 50 years,” he said.

I certainly hope Bill Morneau convinces his provincial counterparts there is no better time than now (at least from a political standpoint) to expand the CPP.

The Liberals have already bungled up two things on retirement policy. First, they scaled back the TFSA limit, a dumb move which penalizes many Canadians with no pension whatsoever who are just trying to save for retirement. More recently, they scaled back OAS eligibility from 67 to 65 years old, making Canada the odd man out as far as global pensions are concerned.

Morneau concedes Canadians are healthier and living longer, so why not recognize longevity risk and leave OAS eligibility at 67? Answer: pure political pandering at its worst except now it’s not the Harper Conservatives pandering to big banks and insurance companies, it’s the Trudeau Liberals pandering to Canada’s “working poor” (but implementing stupid policies in their name).

Now, the Trudeau Liberals have a golden opportunity to rally the provinces around a very important retirement policy — perhaps the most important one in the history of Canada — and get on to enhancing the Canada Pension Plan so more Canadians can retire in dignity and security and not be held hostage by the vagaries of global stock markets (if they’re lucky enough to have saved anything for retirement).

Importantly, good retirement policy is good economic policy for the long-term. The more people retire in dignity and security, the better they can plan for retirement and spend accordingly. It all comes down to a theme I harp on in this blog, namely, rising inequality and deficient aggregate demand.

What about concerns from Quebec, British Columbia and Saskatchewan on oil and the economy? Let me address these concerns head on. Canada is going to face its worst economic crisis ever, ushering in negative rates here, but that is not a reason to avoid enhancing the CPP. Quite the opposite, that’s a big reason to get on with bolstering the country’s retirement system.

In fact, when I read Andrew Coyne’s critique on the federal budget or that of John Ivison, I understand their concerns on spending but when they state Canada is not in a recession, they’re either dreaming or completely delusional.

Let me give all you private sector economists, many of which are former colleagues of mine who I respect a lot, a word of advice. If you can’t forecast trends in global stock, currency, commodity and fixed income markets, much like I regularly do on my blog, you have no business whatsoever trying to forecast where the Canadian economy is heading.

When I read articles on how New York’s real estate market is headed for a crash, my mind immediately goes to Vancouver’s red hot real estate market and how it’s set to crash hard as house prices there hit new highs, no thanks to unscrupulous real estate agents preying on foreign buyers or worse still, helping them conceal their ill-gotten gains (a lot of black money is entering Canada and regulators are looking the other way).

But the same global pressures that are hitting New York and London’s red hot real estate market are also going to hit that of Canada’s. Add to this banks and hedge funds shedding thousands of high paying trading jobs, and you quickly realize that Vancouver and Toronto’s real estate market are next in line to fall hard (in Montreal, Bombardier’s woes is hurting this city’s real estate market as many engineers lost their job).

And once Canada’s real estate market implodes, I guarantee you Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be going negative and not waiting to see what happens with federal spending on infrastructure. He might even move rates to negative a lot sooner if oil prices keep declining or crash.

In fact, my former colleague, Brian Romanchuk, wrote a very thoughtful comment on the radical status quo of the Canadian federal budget where he questions whether all this stimulus spending is going to make a difference once the Canadian housing market crashes (it won’t but it’s better than doing nothing!).

Brian ends his comment on this sobering note:

I fail to see anything in the budget that directly addresses the problems created by the two-tier labour market, and so there is no reason to expect the problems with persistent underemployment going away. This underemployment helps create the economic drag that has been diagnosed as “secular stagnation.”

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, Canadians live in Dreamland. They’re either hopelessly delusional or they simply don’t realize what’s going on out in the global economy and how it’s going to severely impact the Canadian economy (Albertans are the first to taste this bitter new reality).

And these problems aren’t unique to Canada. Chronic underemployment or structural unemployment is threatening the U.S. economy too where a staggering 23% of Americans in their prime working years are unemployed. Worse still, those that are working aren’t saving money enough for retirement and are making a dangerous retirement gamble on their future.

So, if the U.S. economy isn’t in great shape (far from it), and China, Japan and Europe are mired in deflation, what are the prospects for a small open economy like that of Canada? I’m afraid they’re not good and the worst is yet to come.

But don’t use the poor economy as an excuse not to enhance the CPP for all Canadians. While volatile stock markets disproportionately impact the portfolios of individual Canadians, large, well-governed public pension funds like the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board relish at the opportunity to buy global public and private market assets at a discount.

 

Photo credit: “Canada blank map” by Lokal_Profil image cut to remove USA by Paul Robinson – Vector map BlankMap-USA-states-Canada-provinces.svg.Modified by Lokal_Profil. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons – http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_blank_map.svg#mediaviewer/File:Canada_blank_map.svg

Pension Pulse: Chicago’s Pension Nightmare?

chicago

Leo Kolivakis is a blogger, trader and independent senior pension and investment analyst. This post was originally published at Pension Pulse.

The Wall Street Journal reports, Chicago Pension Nightmare:

The hits keep coming for Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. On Thursday the Illinois Supreme Court struck down the city’s pension reform, which required city workers to chip in more to their retirement plans, raised the retirement age and cut back on cost-of-living adjustments. But there may be a silver lining for the fiscal basket case known as Illinois.

The Illinois court said Chicago’s 2014 reforms violate a provision of the state constitution that bans diminishing existing pension benefits. This is legally debatable, but the court’s ruling wasn’t surprising since it had already knocked down state pension reforms signed by previous Governor Pat Quinn.

The ruling further limits Mr. Emanuel’s fiscal options as pension payments take an ever-growing share of city revenues. On Thursday the gracious souls at the Chicago Teachers Union announced a one-day walkout on April 1. The CTU isn’t allowed to strike until this summer, but CTU president Karen Lewis told her members not to worry: “What are they going to do, arrest us all? Put us all in jail? There’s not 27,000 spaces in the Cook County Jail right now.” Ah, she cares so deeply for the children.

The ruling may be better news for Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner, who has been trying to reform the state pensions amid a hostile Democratic legislature. The court said in its Chicago ruling that a reform would be constitutional if workers had a choice to go into a modified or lower-benefit structure.

Mr. Rauner has endorsed the outline of a plan created by state Senate President John Cullerton that would let workers choose between capping their pensionable salary and collecting more generous cost-of-living increases during retirement, or collecting slightly lower cost-of-living increases during retirement based on a higher pensionable salary.

Mr. Cullerton has since distanced himself from his own handiwork under union pressure, but something will have to give or Illinois and the City of Big Unfunded Pension Obligations will go broke.

John O’Connor of the Associated Press also reports, Illinois Supreme Court strikes down Chicago pensions plan:

The Illinois Supreme Court dealt another devastating blow Thursday to the state’s impatient attempts to control ballooning public pension debt, striking down a law that would have cut into an $8 billion hole in two of Chicago’s employee retirement accounts and leaving officials searching for new options to shore up an already wobbly program.

The city had hoped that by pointing to the steep increase in taxpayer-fueled contributions the law required it would be able to sidestep a widely expected ruling that the plan violated the Illinois Constitution’s protection against reducing pension benefits.

But the court’s unanimous finding in favor of pension participants who pointed to reduced future benefits and higher contributions sends the city back to the bargaining table.

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner used the ruling the tout a proposal by Democratic Senate President John Cullerton that would offer workers a choice of future cost-of-living increases based on current salary, or lowered increases tied to future pay raises. The idea is, benefits already collected don’t go away.

“We’ve got to stop changing and taking away peoples accrued pension benefits,” Rauner said at a stop in Paxton, according to audio released by his office. “Let’s propose changes for future work with ‘consideration’ so teachers or police officers or public places can choose different pensions for the future.”

An expert on Illinois finances said it’s time to amend the Illinois Constitution to make the pension protection language clear. Lawmakers vowed to keep trying.

To stave off insolvency by 2029, the law forced the city to significantly ramp up its annual contributions, but also cut benefits and required larger contributions from about 61,000 current and retired librarians, nurses, non-teaching school employees laborers and more.

Critics targeted the law from the start, in part because it addressed only two funds — civil servants and laborers. When including police and fire pension programs, the city’s total liability was $20 billion — not counting a $9.6 billion shortfall in the Chicago Public Schools teachers’ pension account. The City Council approved a $543 million property-tax increase last fall — to deal with shortages in police and fire funds.

The order came less than a year after the high court used the same reasoning to shoot down a separate pension bailout: the $111 billion deficit in state-employee retirement accounts.

And other cities are not far behind, facing similar shortfalls.

Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, a Chicago-based tax policy and research group, suggested the iron-clad constitutional language threatens any proposal. He suggests a constitutional amendment that loosens its restrictions.

“We’re not advocating for any specific plan,” Msall said. “We’re supporting the need for clarity in the constitution so those ideas can be legislated.”

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who inherited the crisis, disagreed with the ruling but pledged to re-convene negotiations on a new framework.

“My administration will continue to work with our labor partners on a shared path forward,” the Democrat said in a statement.

The four unions representing the plaintiffs were more sanguine.

“This ruling makes clear again that the politicians who ran up the debt cannot run out on the bill or dump the burden on public-service workers and retirees instead,” the unions said in a joint statement.

Margaret Cronin Fisk, Elizabeth Campbell, and Janan Hanna of Bloomberg also report, Chicago’s Plan to Overhaul City Pensions Dashed by Top Court:

Chicago’s plan to ease its $20 billion public-worker pension deficit was ruled illegal by the Illinois Supreme Court, a decision that the city warned may lead to the funds’ running out of money and worsen its financial strains.

The Chicago plan, passed in 2014, violates the Illinois Constitution, which bars the diminishing of public pensions, the court said Thursday. The finding upholds a lower court decision  from July and follows a similar ruling by the Illinois Supreme Court last May preventing changes to the state’s pension funds.

“It’s disappointing, but not unexpected,” said Paul Mansour, head of municipal research at Conning, which oversees $11 billion of state and local debt, including Chicago securities. “It will take longer to bring these costs under control absent the ability to enact common sense reforms that were negotiated.”

The city, the third-largest in the nation, shortchanged its pensions over the last decade, creating a shortfall that’s left it with a lower credit rating than any big U.S. city except once-bankrupt Detroit. Under the now void law, its projected annual payment of $886 million due this year to its four retirement funds was more than twice what it was a decade ago, spurring officials to adopt a record property-tax increase to ease the impact on the budget.

The ruling in the Chicago case impairs Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s efforts to pare a deficit that threatens the city’s solvency. The defeat leaves officials racing to devise new ways to shore up retirement system, though it will also save money in the short term because the overhaul required the city to boost contributions to its municipal and laborers funds. The two cover about 60,000 workers and retirees.

“My administration will continue to work with our labor partners on a shared path forward that preserves and protects the municipal and laborers’ pension funds, while continuing to be fair to Chicago taxpayers and ensuring the City’s long-term financial health,” Emanuel said in an e-mailed statement.

Workers hailed the decision for eliminating the risk that promised benefits will be scaled back. “Today’s ruling strengthens the promise of dignity in retirement for those who serve our communities, and reinforces the Illinois Constitution, our state’s highest law,” city unions said in a joint statement.

The court’s ruling comes almost 11 months after it unanimously struck down a 2013 law to alter Illinois’s retirement system, saying the changes to solve the state’s $111 billion pension shortfall violated constitutional protections of workers’ benefits. That holding led Moody’s Investors Service to cut Chicago’s credit rating to junk in May, citing the increased risk that the city’s law would also be thrown out.

Moody’s, which has a negative outlook on Chicago’s Ba1 rating, one step below investment grade, said it would continue to assess its plans to fix pensions in the wake of the ruling.

Ruling Expected

Before the ruling, Moody’s said the city could get hit with another downgrade if the court sided with unions and officials don’t develop and enact an alternate plan. Unlike cities such as Detroit, Chicago can’t file for bankruptcy protection to cut its debts because Illinois law doesn’t allow it.

There was little trading in Chicago bonds after the verdict, which investors had predicted would not go in the city’s favor.

The ruling was an “expected setback for the city,” said John Miller, co-head of fixed income in Chicago at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees about $110 billion in munis, which includes Chicago debt. The city has a growing and diverse economy, he said, citing increasing corporate relocations and a rise in assessed valuations among other positives.

“They have time and they have strength to pull from,” Miller said. “I think other reform models that could pass muster are still being worked on. They tried one type, and that one type didn’t work, so they got to try another model.”

Chicago argued that its plan was different from the state version because it increased city funding of the municipal workers’ and laborers’ pension funds, essentially protecting benefits by ensuring the funds don’t go broke. The plans for fire and police retirees weren’t covered by the overhaul.

Accrued benefits shouldn’t be changed, Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner told reporters on Thursday. He reiterated the importance of his agenda, stalled in the Democrat-led legislature, to bolster the state economy through limits on unions and property tax relief.

“I’m not going to bail out Chicago, but our reforms structurally will allow Chicago to solve a lot of its own problems,” Rauner said.

The affected plans cut future cost-of-living raises. Lawyers for unions sued the city, arguing that any reduction in benefits was illegal. The court agreed.

“The statutory funding provisions are not a ‘benefit’ that can be ‘offset’ against an unconstitutional diminishment of pension benefits,” the opinion reads.

The city’s measures were intended to make the laborer and municipal worker pensions 90 percent funded by the end of 2055. The municipal workers’ pension was only 42 percent funded, and the laborers only 64 percent funded, at the end of 2014, city documents show.

Unfunded liabilities are increasing each day by an average of $2.48 million, city lawyers said in court papers. One fund will be out of money within 10 years, the other in 13, they said. The court rejected that as a justification for reducing benefits.

“To put it simply, in 10 years, the members of the Funds will be no less entitled to the benefits they were promised,” the opinion reads. “Thus the ‘guaranty’ that the benefits due will be paid is merely an offer to do something already constitutionally mandated by the pension protection clause.”

The case is Jones v. Municipal Employees Annuity and Benefit Fund of Chicago, 119618, Supreme Court of Illinois (Springfield).

In its editorial, the Chicago Tribune laments, Pension ruling another blow to Chicago taxpayers — and Emanuel:

The Illinois Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional another pension reform law on Thursday, this one affecting Chicago and splashing more red ink on fragile, debt-ridden city finances.

The court’s decision to toss Chicago’s pension reform law, which the Illinois legislature approved in 2014 as an attempt to rescue pension funds for municipal workers and laborers, was not a surprise. Nor is its ripple effect: As the opinion states and unarguable math attests, those two funds remain on track to go insolvent “in about 10 and 13 years, respectively.”

The court previously had twice ruled that an Illinois Constitution pension clause protects retirement benefits promised from a worker’s start of public employment. The law the justices rejected had required certain city of Chicago workers to pay more toward their pensions, scaled back cost-of-living increases upon retirement, and raised the retirement age. The court ruled that those changes violate the constitution’s provision that membership in any pension or retirement system “shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired.”

The decision repudiates Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s strategy for salvaging a vastly underfunded Chicago pension system that also covers public safety workers — police and fire — and Chicago teachers. Emanuel persistently has argued that because 28 of 31 unions affected by the 2014 reform law had agreed to it. Emanuel said that because the law would shore up the funds in the long run and thereby protect benefits for retirees, it would meet constitutional muster.

But the Supreme Court disagreed. In a 2015 ruling rejecting a pension reform law affecting state lawmakers, the justices faulted state lawmakers for not making adequate payments into their pension system. Thursday’s ruling similarly blamed city leaders for failing to make adequate payments into City Hall’s pension funds: “The pension code continued to set city contribution levels at a fixed multiple of employee contributions. This contribution level had no relationship to the obligations that the funds were accruing.” To rule in favor of the law would mean that the court would have to “ignore the plain language of the constitution.”

Translation: City and state politicians have known well that they were awarding pension benefits that Illinois governments cannot afford. Rather than properly fund pension systems, the politicians have spent on other priorities the tax revenues they should have set aside to fulfill all the generous retirement promises they made to their friends in public employees unions.

Justice Mary Jane Theis wrote the 5-0 opinion. Justices Anne Burke and Charles Freeman did not take part in the decision.

We supported this pension reform law, and the state law, for a number of reasons, including getting language before the courts for a decision. We now have it.

For city taxpayers, the impact of Thursday’s ruling is menacing. In essence the court is saying that the responsibility to deliver benefits the politicians have pledged to public workers falls on taxpayers’ shoulders. Barring some major reforms that do meet constitutional tests — or the long overdue government streamlining and cost-cutting that city and state pols chronically resist — taxpayers will have to bail out not only these pension funds for municipal workers and laborers, but also the similarly endangered funds for police officers, firefighters and teachers.

Add in taxpayers’ liabilities for Cook County workers, whose pension system is listing. Emanuel and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle already have backed huge tax hikes to help address their respective pension shortfalls.

And don’t forget the underfunded pension systems for state workers, downstate teachers, university workers, retired lawmakers and some suburbs’ workers.

With the Supreme Court sticking to its rigorous interpretation of the pension clause — the justices even protected health care for retirees in a 2014 decision — there seems to be little room to extract from public workers that “shared sacrifice” the politicians love to talk about.

No, unless Illinois pols institute massive reforms to the cost of governance, taxpayers can expect to bear the brunt of the pension crisis our elected officials have created in their name.

The taxation required to support the huge enterprise of Illinois government already is monumental — and now it’s likely to grow. Blame decades of mismanagement at all levels of representation.

Borrowing to pay for operating expenses has been the path to ruin. This new City Hall obligation comes on top of billions of borrowing throughout city, county and state governments.

As you prepare to vote in the November general election, remember: Piling debts upon debts can no longer be the way Illinois and Chicago operate.

Piling debts are going to keep piling in Chicago. Progress Illinois reports, Chicago Takes Out $220 Million Loan For Pension Payments:

The city of Chicago borrowed $220 million for a police and fire pension payment due by the end of the year.

The city took out the loan with a 3 percent interest rate in order to have the pension funds ready by a state-mandated March 1 deadline, officials said Monday.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s 2016 budget included a $588 million property tax hike for police and fire pensions and school construction. Still, the mayor’s spending plan depends on the state for pension funding changes, which have cleared both legislative chambers but have not yet been sent to Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. The governor has called for the Chicago pension to bill to be included “as part of a larger package of structural reform bills.”

The pension funding changes would give the city more time to make its pension payments, cutting pension costs due this year by $219 million.

With the pension changes in place, the state could return the $220 million it borrowed from its $900 million short-term credit line.

In other pension-related news, the Illinois Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision Thursday regarding Chicago’s 2014 overhaul of its Municipal and Laborers pension funds.

Last July, a Cook County Judge deemed the city’s pension overhaul unconstitutional. The city appealed the lower court ruling to the Illinois Supreme Court.

The Cook County judge’s ruling against Chicago’s pension measure was guided by a May decision from the Illinois Supreme Court involving a state pension reform law.

The state’s high court struck down the state pension measure on the grounds that it violated the Illinois Constitution’s pension clause, which states that contractual pension benefits cannot be reduced.

Chicago’s pension nightmare has come full circle. As Zero Hedge rightly notes, the countdown for insolvency begins for Chicago’s pensions. This pension problem has been festering for years not just in Chicago but in the entire state of Illinois which has one of the worst funded state plans.

What are my thoughts? I’ve been warning all of you that U.S. public pensions are doomed and the worst ones are at the city and local levels. These unfunded public pension liabilities are going to crush taxpayers through higher property taxes and make it increasingly more difficult for people to afford homes in the United States, not that they are affordable right now.

And while I understand the state’s high court ruling — after all, Chicago mismanaged its pensions for decades, failing to top them up so they it can spend lavishly and foolishly elsewhere — I am increasingly worried that public sector unions fail to understand that unless they agree to adopt a shared risk model and agree to some pension reforms, their city will go the way of Greece and Detroit where the bond market extracted a pound of flesh from public pensions.

In other words, Illinois’ Supreme Court can interpret the law any way it wants, in the end it’s the bond market which will impose drastic cuts to public pensions because already stretched taxpayers aren’t in a position to bail out grossly mismanaged public pensions.

I’ve gone through this already when I discussed New Jersey’s COLA war:

In the U.S., you don’t have such shared risk plans at state pensions, which is why you see massive confrontations on public pensions and terrible solutions to the state pension crisis (like shifting out of defined-benefit into defined-contribution plans).

So who is going to win New Jersey’s COLA war? I don’t know. I feel for a lot of public sector employees getting screwed but the reality is New Jersey and other U.S. states are already screwed when it comes to their pension promise and unions and politicians will need to agree on very difficult cuts to shore up these public pensions. You can only kick the can down the road so far before the chicken comes home to roost.

One thing I do know, however, is that defined-contribution plans are not the solution to America’s ongoing retirement crisis. We can debate COLAs but there’s no debating that bolstering defined-benefit plans is the best way to bolster a country’s retirement system. You just need to get the governance right and introduce a shared-risk model at public pensions like New Brunswick did to tackle its pension deficit.

What is important for all of you to keep in mind when I discuss Chicago’s pension nightmare, U.S. public pensions being doomed, Europe’s pension problem or the $78 trillion global pension disaster is that the global pension crisis is deflationary and it will be with us for a long time.

Let me explain this further. When it comes to unfunded public pensions, either you increase the retirement age and contributions or you cut benefits or you ask taxpayers to bail them out. That last option is political suicide but let’s say politicians are able to ram this through.

What do all these options mean? Less spending for the economy by consumers and less spending on much needed infrastructure projects. And less personal spending on goods and services as well as less government spending on goods, services and infrastructure is very deflationary. Period.

 

Photo by bitsorf via Flickr CC License


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