risk-adjusted returns

Report: Hedge Fund Assets Will Continue Growing in 2015, But Executives Recognize Underperformance

A new survey, released Tuesday by Deutsche Bank, reveals that hedge fund executives expect hedge fund assets to grow by 7 percent and exceed $3 trillion in 2015, including $60 billion of net inflows.

But the majority of executives and investors surveyed – 66 percent – also recognized that hedge funds underperformed in 2014.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Investors included in the survey had on average expected returns of 8.1%, but said they only got returns of 5.3%.

[…]

However, some investors are planning to invest more in hedge funds, despite last year’s lackluster returns.

The survey said 39% of investors plan to increase allocations to hedge funds this year, including 22% who expect to increase the size of their allocations by $100 million or more.

Other key findings from the survey, from a Deutsche Bank press release:

Investors are looking for steady and predictable risk-adjusted returns – Investors risk/return expectations for traditional hedge fund products continues to come down in favor of steady and predictable performance: only 14% of respondents still target returns of more than 10% for the hedge fund portfolio, compared to 37% last year.

With this in mind, however, 40% of respondents now co-invest with hedge fund managers as a way to increase exposure to a manager’s best ideas and enhance returns. 72% of these investors plan to increase their allocation in 2015.

Investors see increasing opportunity in Asia – 30% of hedge fund respondents by AUM plan to increase investment in Asian managers over the next 12 months, up from 19% last year. Even more noteworthy is the growing percentage of investors who see opportunity in China, up to 25% from 11% by AUM, year-on-year. India is expected to be a key beneficiary of flows, with 26% of investors by AUM planning to increase exposure to the region, whereas only 4% said the same last year.

Photo jjMustang_79 via Flickr CC License

Arizona Pension CIO Counters Claims of Being States Worst-Performing System

Ryan Parham, chief investment officer of the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System (PSPRS), penned a piece in the Arizona Capitol Times on Thursday defending his fund against claims of being Arizona’s “worst-performing pension plan.”

But Parham says the raw return numbers don’t tell the whole story. Here’s what Parham has to say:

All too often, fiction and gossip move faster than truth and reason. As such, it is often stated by our detractors that our $8 billion portfolio is the state’s “worst-performing pension plan,” which gives the impression that our investment staff is incompetent and responsible for the trust’s sagging pension funding levels.

The truth is: the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System has an enviable investment record. Prominent industry consultants rank PSPRS among the top 4 percent of all U.S. pension funds in risk-adjusted returns for the past three years. We also join the top 11 percent of all U.S. pension funds for the past five years. While these facts might not make for a provocative headline, they matter to our beneficiaries, our contributors, our staff and our elected officials.

[…]

Last fiscal year, PSPRS outperformed national risk-adjusted averages by one half of 1 percent. It sounds miniscule, but it meant an additional $380 million in value to the trust. Our actively managed strategy is simple: Diversify assets and reduce exposure to publicly traded equities, the greatest driver of market volatility. High-risk strategies and lack of diversification have proven disastrous for PSPRS, as evidenced by $1 billion losses suffered in the 2000-2001 “dot-com” market crash.

While it is true that in recent years PSPRS’ returns have been less than its sister plan, the Arizona State Retirement System (ASRS), it is important to remember our innovative, low-risk, moderate return strategy is by conscious design, due to a pension benefit that PSPRS alone must pay to pensioners. This benefit, called the Permanent Benefit Increase, or “PBI,” siphons and distributes half of all returns in excess of 9 percent to eligible retirees. Not only are these increased payment levels made permanent, the investment gains only serve to increase – not decrease – unfunded future liabilities.

Read the entire column here.

Photo: “Entering Arizona on I-10 Westbound” by Wing-Chi Poon – Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons

Kansas Pension Plans To Commit $350 Million To At Least Six Real Estate Funds

The Kansas Public Employees Retirement System (PERS) is planning to ramp up its real estate commitments in 2015. The fund will invest up to $350 million in at least a half-dozen real estate funds. More from IPE Real Estate:

The pension fund will split the capital, with $200m for core strategies and as much as $150m for non-core investments.

An increased allocation and separate-account asset sales have given the pension fund substantial core capital to deploy.

Kansas PERS will invest the core capital with its existing core managers: JP Morgan Strategic Property Fund, Morgan Stanley Prime Property Fund, LaSalle Property Fund, Heitman America Real Estate Trust, UBS Trumbull Property Fund and Jamestown Premiere Property Fund.

It could also place capital in a new, core, open-ended fund as it evaluates the merits of adding a seventh core fund.

Non-core capital would be invested in funds targeting assets in the US, as well as Europe or Asia.

Kansas PERS, which typically makes $40m commitments, would consider approving three or four commitments next year.

The pension fund said it believed non-core strategies offered the potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns.

On an unleveraged basis, value-add investments are being underwritten to premiums of 200 basis points or more above core returns, it said.

Kansas PERS said it would continue to target skilled managers focused to their core competencies, rather than those accepting additional risk and new strategies to reach for outsized returns.

The System’s real estate portfolio returned 15 percent last fiscal year.

Chart: The Rise of Hedge Funds In Pension Portfolios

In recent years, hedge funds have solidified themselves as a big part of pension portfolios by two measures:

1) More pension funds than ever are investing in hedge funds

2) Those pensions are allocating more money towards hedge funds than ever before

That bears itself out in the above graphic, and this next one:

A recent Preqin report had this to say about the numbers:

“There are more US public pension funds than ever before allocating capital to hedge funds, and these investors are investing the most they ever have in the asset class. Public pension funds have increasingly recognized the value of hedge funds as part of a diversified portfolio, and although CalPERS’ withdrawal from the asset class will spark some investors to look more closely at their current allocation model, the importance of hedge funds as a source of risk-adjusted returns for these investors is likely to continue to prove attractive for US retirement schemes.

Preqin’s recent research highlights that investors are not using hedge funds to produce outsized returns, but instead to produce uncorrelated, risk-adjusted returns. Over short and longer time frames, hedge funds have in general met investor needs for risk-adjusted returns. However 2014 has been a period of relatively turbulent returns when looking at Preqin’s monthly benchmarks; in times like this, investor calls for changes in fee structures and better alignment of interests become more vocal, and this clearly has had an impact on CalPERS’ decision.”

Chart Credit: Preqin